14 Aug 2024 | 03:35 PM UTC
Russia, Ukraine: Combat reportedly continues to expand at border between Russia's Belgorod Oblast and Ukraine's Sumy Region Aug. 14; evacuations ordered /update 4
Military operations reportedly continue near Russia's Belgorod Oblast bordering Ukraine Aug. 14; combat continues in Kursk Oblast.
Combat between Russian and Ukrainian forces is ongoing in Russia's Kursk Oblast as of Aug. 14. The governor of Russia's Belgorod Oblast announced the state of emergency early on Aug. 14, following the evacuation of the Krasnoyaruzhsky district ordered on Aug. 12 amid reports of increased Ukrainian military activity near the border. Unconfirmed reports indicate that Ukrainian forces are likely approaching Belgorod Oblast; however, as of Aug. 14, there is no confirmed report of Ukrainian troops entering Belgorod. Reportedly, 74 settlements in Kursk are under the control of Ukrainian troops as of Aug. 14.
Ukrainian offensive operations in the Kursk Oblast continue as of Aug. 14. The amount of territory currently under Ukrainian control is subject to conflicting reporting. Intense combat is reportedly ongoing near Koronevo, Alekseevsky, Tolpino, Bolshoye Soldatskoye and Plekhovo. Ukrainian authorities claim that over 260 Russian soldiers have surrendered since Aug. 9. Ukrainian artillery and airstrikes are ongoing. Ukrainian forces have penetrated over 30 km (18 miles) into Kursk Oblast and will likely continue to make marginal gains. Unconfirmed reports indicate that Russian forces have begun building defensive trenches deeper into Kursk Oblast; the construction of defensive capabilities could indicate that Russian forces are far from being able to completely dislodge Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast.
Authorities in Russia have declared a "federal-level emergency" in the Kursk Oblast and ordered the evacuation of various areas bordering Ukraine's Sumy Region, including the Belovsky district on Aug. 12, and the Sudzhansky and Korenevsky districts on Aug. 9. The evacuation orders reportedly impact tens of thousands of people. Russian authorities have also issued missile alert warnings in the Sudzhansky and Korenevsky districts. Increased Russian missile and artillery strikes in Ukraine's Sumy Region continue to be reported.
Although details remain unclear, it is increasingly likely that Ukraine has committed significant forces to these various border incursions since they began via the Sumy Region early on Aug. 6. Ukrainian forces appear to have rapidly advanced in multiple directions, seizing around a dozen towns and launching attacks near numerous others. Russian authorities report that at least 12 civilians have died and 121 have been injured since the incursions began; casualty figures will likely increase over the coming days. Ukrainian authorities report that humanitarian aid from Ukraine is reaching the area of Sudzha as of Aug. 14, in support of the local civilian population affected by military operations. Military losses on both sides remain unclear. Water, electricity, and telecommunications outages are reported near the combat areas. Additionally, Russian Railways announced the closure of the Sudzha, Korenevo, and Psel railway stations.
Artillery fire, aerial attacks, and ground combat operations will likely continue in the coming days. Strikes may cause building damage and civilian casualties. Russian counteroffensive operations could prompt increased security and the evacuation of civilians from surrounding areas. Either party may expand military operations in response to conditions on the ground.
Avoid travel to active conflict zones in Russia's Kursk Oblast or to border areas in Ukraine's Sumy Region. Consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in the region. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance (UXO), avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected UXO.
Though not the first incursion into Russian territory from Ukraine, the latest operation differs from previous ones in two key respects. Firstly, previous raids featured smaller numbers of fighters and armored vehicles. Secondly, and crucially, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are conducting the current operation. The AFU's involvement strongly contrasts with previous incursions, which were conducted by Ukraine-based Russian militant groups (primarily the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion). Although the aims and true extent of the offensive remain unclear, reports on Aug. 12 indicate that Ukrainian forces have seized or surrounded several settlements and are reportedly constructing entrenchments. Alternatively, the AFU's rapid advance along multiple axes may indicate the operation's intent is to cause significant disruption and confusion among Russian forces without holding substantial territory. Either way, Russia has been forced to respond with heavy reinforcements, thus likely deprioritizing frontline areas within Ukraine.
