12 Aug 2024 | 10:51 AM UTC
Russia, Ukraine: Combat reportedly expands to border between Russia's Belgorod Oblast and Ukraine's Sumy Region Aug. 12; evacuations ordered. /update 3
Military operations reportedly expand to Russia's Belgorod Oblast bordering Ukraine Aug. 12; combat continues in Kursk Oblast.
Authorities in Russia's Belgorod Oblast, which borders Ukraine's Sumy Region, have ordered the evacuation of the Krasnoyaruzhsky district on Aug. 12 amid reports of increased Ukrainian military activity near the border. Unconfirmed reports indicate Ukrainian troops have launched an attack against the Kolotilovka border crossing, using ground troops, tanks, and armored vehicles. It is unclear whether Ukrainian forces have entered the Belgorod Oblast.
Military operations continue in the Kursk Oblast as of Aug. 12, with sustained combat reported near Korenevo, Snagost, Kremyanoe, Olgovka, Malaya Loknya, Sudzha, and Guyevo. Ukrainian forces have penetrated up to 30 km (18 miles) into Kursk Oblast, with ground combat and airstrikes reported as far from Ukraine's border as Ivanovskii and Belaya in the Belovsky district. Additionally, border incursions were reported on Aug. 11 near Kucherovka and Goptarovka in the Belovsky district; however, these remain unconfirmed.
Authorities in Russia have declared a "federal-level emergency" in the Kursk Oblast and ordered the evacuation of various areas bordering Ukraine's Sumy Region, including the Belovsky district on Aug. 12, and the Sudzhansky and Korenevsky districts on Aug. 9. The evacuation orders reportedly impact tens of thousands of people. Russian authorities have also issued missile alert warnings in the Sudzhansky and Korenevsky districts. Increased Russian missile and artillery strikes in Ukraine's Sumy Region continue to be reported.
Although details remain unclear, it is increasingly likely that Ukraine has committed significant forces to these various border incursions since they began via the Sumy Region early on Aug. 6. Ukrainian forces appear to have rapidly advanced in multiple directions, seizing around a dozen towns and launching attacks near numerous others. Russian authorities report that at least five civilians have died and 66 have been injured since the incursions began; casualty figures will likely increase over the coming days. Military losses on both sides remain unclear. Water, electricity, and telecommunications outages are reported near the combat areas. Additionally, Russian Railways announced the closure of the Sudzha, Korenevo, and Psel railway stations.
Artillery fire, aerial attacks, and ground combat operations will likely continue in the coming days. Strikes may cause building damage and civilian casualties. Russian counteroffensive operations could prompt increased security and the evacuation of civilians from surrounding areas. Either party may expand military operations in response to conditions on the ground.
Avoid travel to active conflict zones in Russia's Kursk Oblast or to border areas in Ukraine's Sumy Region. Consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in the region. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance (UXO), avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected UXO.
Though not the first incursion into Russian territory from Ukraine, the latest operation differs from previous ones in two key respects. Firstly, previous raids featured smaller numbers of fighters and armored vehicles. Secondly, and crucially, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are conducting the current operation. The AFU's involvement strongly contrasts with previous incursions, which were conducted by Ukraine-based Russian militant groups (primarily the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion). Although the aims and true extent of the offensive remain unclear, reports on Aug. 12 indicate that Ukrainian forces have seized or surrounded several settlements and are reportedly constructing entrenchments. Alternatively, the AFU's rapid advance along multiple axes may indicate the operation's intent is to cause significant disruption and confusion among Russian forces without holding substantial territory. Either way, Russia has been forced to respond with heavy reinforcements, thus likely deprioritizing frontline areas within Ukraine.
