16 Aug 2024 | 12:07 PM UTC
Russia, Ukraine: Ukrainian advances slow at border between Russia's Belgorod Oblast and Ukraine's Sumy Region Aug. 16; combat continues in Kursk Oblast /update 5
Military operations reportedly continue near Russia's Belgorod Oblast bordering Ukraine Aug. 16; combat continues in Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian offensive operations into Russia's Kursk Oblast are ongoing as of Aug. 16; Kyiv authorities reported advances between 500 meters (540 yards) and 1.5 km (0.9 miles) in Kursk Oblast through Aug. 14-15; officials also assessed Ukrainian forces' penetration to at least 35 km (21 miles) into Russian territory. Most intense combat is reportedly occurring near Sudzha and Koronevo. Russian forces reportedly repelled Ukrainian troops from Giri, a settlement south of Sudzha. Further settlements are subject to conflicting reporting. Unconfirmed reports indicate that Ukrainian forces are likely approaching Belgorod Oblast; however, as of Aug. 16, there is no confirmed report of Ukrainian troops entering Belgorod. Reportedly, around 70 settlements in Kursk are under the control of Ukrainian troops as of Aug. 16.
Ukrainian artillery and airstrikes into Russian territory are ongoing as of Aug. 16. UK authorities reportedly forbid the use of UK-provided long-range missiles into Kursk Oblast. Western-made vehicles have been reportedly used in combat in several areas of Kursk Oblast. Reporting suggests that both Ukrainian and Russian forces have begun the construction of defensive positions in Kursk Oblast; a likely indicator that both forces expect to continue combat operations in the medium-to-long term. Moscow is likely moving troops from unspecified areas to reinforce the ongoing defensive attempts in Kursk Oblast. Belarus has reportedly started sending military aid in the form of equipment and vehicles to Russian forces deployed in Kursk and other areas, following an urgent request on Aug. 14.
Ukrainian authorities report that humanitarian aid from Ukraine is reaching the Sudzha area as of Aug. 14 in support of the local civilian population affected by military operations. Military losses on both sides remain unclear. Water, electricity, and telecommunications outages are reported near the combat areas. Additionally, Russian Railways announced the closure of Sudzha, Korenevo, and Psel railway stations.
Authorities in Russia have declared a "federal-level emergency" in Kursk Oblast and ordered the evacuation of various areas bordering Ukraine's Sumy Region, including the Sudzhansky and Korenevsky districts on Aug. 9, the Belovsky district on Aug. 12, and the Glushkovsky district on Aug. 14. The evacuation orders reportedly impact tens of thousands of people. Russian authorities have also issued missile alert warnings in the Sudzhansky and Korenevsky districts. Increased Russian missile and artillery strikes in Ukraine's Sumy Region continue to be reported.
Artillery fire, aerial attacks, and ground combat operations will likely continue in the coming days. Strikes may cause building damage and civilian casualties. Russian counteroffensive operations could prompt increased security and the evacuation of civilians from surrounding areas. Either party may expand military operations in response to conditions on the ground.
Avoid travel to active conflict zones in Russia's Kursk Oblast or to border areas in Ukraine's Sumy Region. Consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in the region. Shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance (UXO), avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected UXO.
Though not the first incursion into Russian territory from Ukraine, the latest operation differs from previous ones in two key respects. Firstly, previous raids featured smaller numbers of fighters and armored vehicles. Secondly, and crucially, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are conducting the current operation. The AFU's involvement strongly contrasts with previous incursions, which were conducted by Ukraine-based Russian militant groups (primarily the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion). Although the aims and true extent of the offensive continue to remain unclear, early reports indicated that Ukrainian forces have seized or surrounded several settlements and are reportedly constructing entrenchments. Alternatively, the AFU's rapid advance along multiple axes may indicate the operation's intent is to cause significant disruption and confusion among Russian forces without holding substantial territory. Either way, Russia has been forced to respond with heavy reinforcements, thus likely deprioritizing frontline areas within Ukraine.
Although details remain unclear, it is increasingly likely that Ukraine has committed significant forces to these various border incursions since they began via the Sumy Region early on Aug. 6. Ukrainian forces have rapidly advanced in multiple directions, seizing towns and launching attacks near numerous others. Russian authorities report that at least 12 civilians have died and 121 have been injured since the incursions began; casualty figures will likely increase over the coming days.
