19 Aug 2024 | 03:46 PM UTC
Russia, Ukraine: Ukrainian offensive operations are ongoing in Russia's Kursk Oblast as of mid-August /update 6
Combat continues in Russia's Kursk Oblast bordering Ukraine as of mid-August; limited Ukrainian gains reported.
Ukrainian offensive operations into Russia's Kursk Oblast continue as of mid-August. Most intense combat continues to be reported in the areas surrounding Sudzha and Koronevo; Russian and Ukrainian reporting suggests that Kyiv's troops mark limited gains around these settlements, as Russian forces occasionally repel attacks. Officials assessed Ukrainian forces' penetration to at least 35 km (21 miles) into Russian territory as of mid-August. Ukrainian artillery and airstrikes into Russian territory are ongoing; reporting suggests that at least three bridges on the Seym River between Koronevo and the Ukrainian border were destroyed. Ukraine is likely attempting to slow and deter future Russian counteroffensive operations. Further strikes targeting critical infrastructure in Kursk Oblast are likely in the coming days and weeks. Military losses on both sides remain unclear.
Russian and Ukrainian forces are reportedly digging defensive structures; this indicates that Kyiv's troops likely aim at staying within Russian territory in the medium-to-long term. Russia's reinforcement of local defensive capabilities suggests that Moscow is unlikely to fully dislodge Ukrainian troops currently in Kursk Oblast. Local authorities issued cash bonuses for local volunteers to dig trenches for Moscow's forces, indicating that Russia's manpower and logistics are likely scarce in the area. Moscow is likely moving troops from unspecified areas to reinforce the ongoing defensive attempts in Kursk Oblast. Belarus has reportedly started sending military aid in the form of equipment and vehicles to Russian forces deployed in Kursk and other areas, following an urgent request on Aug. 14.
Russian authorities have implemented enhanced security regimes in the Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts since early August. On Aug. 9, authorities announced a counter-terrorist operations regime in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts, citing an increased threat of Ukrainian sabotage and diversionary operations. In Kursk Oblast, the regime was elevated to a federal-level state of emergency on the same day. In Belgorod Oblast, the state of emergency was announced on Aug. 15. Security measures will likely continue to stay in place until the end of Ukraine's military operations in Russia. Ukrainian authorities report that humanitarian aid from Ukraine is reaching Sudzha as of mid-August in support of the local civilian population affected by military operations.
Artillery fire, aerial attacks, and ground combat operations will likely continue in the coming days. Strikes may cause building damage and civilian casualties. Water, electricity, and telecommunications outages are likely to continue near the combat areas. Increased law enforcement and military deployments are likely across Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts. Officials may set up additional security checkpoints and conduct vehicular checks. Authorities could also implement travel restrictions, closing or limiting access to or exit from certain locations based on operational needs, as well as restrict telecommunications services. Either party may expand military operations in response to conditions on the ground.
Avoid travel to active conflict zones in Russia's Belgorod, Bryansk or Kursk oblasts or to border areas in Ukraine's Sumy Region. Consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in the region. Shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance (UXO), avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected UXO.
Though not the first incursion into Russian territory from Ukraine, the latest operation differs from previous ones in two key respects. Firstly, previous raids featured smaller numbers of fighters and armored vehicles. Secondly, and crucially, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are conducting the current operation. The AFU's involvement strongly contrasts with previous incursions, which were conducted by Ukraine-based Russian militant groups (primarily the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion). Although the aims and true extent of the offensive continue to remain unclear, early reports indicated that Ukrainian forces have seized or surrounded several settlements and are reportedly constructing entrenchments. Alternatively, the AFU's rapid advance along multiple axes may indicate the operation's intent is to cause significant disruption and confusion among Russian forces without holding substantial territory. Either way, Russia has been forced to respond with heavy reinforcements, thus likely deprioritizing frontline areas within Ukraine.
Although details remain unclear, it is increasingly likely that Ukraine has committed significant forces to these various border incursions since they began via the Sumy Region early on Aug. 6. Ukrainian forces have rapidly advanced in multiple directions, seizing towns and launching attacks near numerous others. Russian authorities report that at least 12 civilians have died and 121 have been injured since the incursions began; casualty figures will likely increase over the coming days.
