30 Sep 2024 | 06:15 PM UTC
Ethiopia: Security situation likely to remain volatile in Amhara Region through at least late October /update 15
Volatile security situation likely to persist in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, through at least late October amid ongoing military operations.
The security situation in Amhara Region will likely remain volatile through at least late October amid ongoing hostilities between troops of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and local militias known as FANO.
Armed conflict has escalated across the Amhara Region, particularly around Gondar and in Debark, Debat, Amba Giorgis, and Azezo, all of which are situated along the B30 highway in the North and Central Gondar zones. In many instances, FANO militias briefly seized key positions before being pushed back by ENDF forces. Clashes were also reported in other areas, such as Woldia, Kobo, Shewa-Robit, Debre-Birhan, Debre-Markos North Shewa, and East Gojjam. The ENDF allegedly also conducted air strikes in several locations, leading to dozens of fatalities. Civil unrest has also led officials to impose various restrictions, including limiting mobile internet access, in several areas.
The federal government will likely maintain a heavy troop presence, including deploying armored vehicles across the Amhara region, particularly in major cities such as Bahir Dar, Gondar, Dessie, Mota, and Kombolcha. Fighting between the federal government forces and FANO is possible if the militia group refuses to surrender its weapons to authorities. The army may impose curfews, perform patrols, and establish checkpoints in affected locations. Ongoing security operations may result in travel restrictions and short-term ground transport disruptions. Intermittent internet disruptions are also possible in the coming weeks.
Liaise with trusted local contacts before traveling to or within the Amhara Region. Reconfirm all transport services before departure. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Heed the instructions of the security forces. Travel with personal identification documents to facilitate transit through checkpoints. Avoid concentrations of security personnel and travel at night. Plan for possible short-term telecommunication disruptions.
The Ethiopian federal government initiated military operations in April 2023 to integrate FANO into its security structures. This move has sparked significant opposition from Amhara militias, who view it as an attempt to diminish regional autonomy and leave Amhara vulnerable to potential attacks. As a result, tensions between the federal government and FANO have escalated sharply.
The government's action has also drawn strong criticism, particularly from ethnic-Amhara activists and the National Movement of the Amhara (NaMA) party. Critics argue that the government's true intention is to disarm FANO, thereby enabling the neighboring Tigray Region to reclaim control over disputed territories. These areas include the Wolkait area in western Tigray and the Raya area in southern Tigray, which Amhara forces seized in November 2020 during the military confrontation between federal troops and Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) rebels.
The conflict between the federal government and TPLF rebels concluded in early November 2022 with the signing of a peace agreement in Pretoria, South Africa. Since then, several steps have been taken to implement the peace deal, including the establishment of an Interim Regional Administration (IRA) and the removal of the TPLF from the designated terrorist list. However, despite these positive developments, significant challenges remain. One of the key unresolved issues is the withdrawal of non-government forces, including Eritrean troops and Amhara militias, from Tigray territory.
