Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane Francine tracking northeastward toward the US Gulf Coast as of Sept. 11 /update 4

Hurricane Francine is tracking northeastward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico toward the US Gulf Coast Sept. 11. As of 10:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 240 km (150 miles) southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will maintain Category 1 hurricane strength before making landfall over Louisiana, US, southwest of Morgan City, the evening of Sept. 11. After landfall, the system will likely weaken rapidly into a tropical storm as it tracks northeastward across southeastern Louisiana and into western Mississippi late Sept. 11-early Sept. 12. Francine will weaken further into a tropical depression as it tracks north-northeastward over northwestern Mississippi late Sept. 12. The system will continue to weaken as it transitions into a post-tropical cyclone and then dissipates as it tracks generally northward over the Arkansas-Tennessee border area Sept. 13. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Sept. 11, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Louisiana coast from the Vermilion-Cameron County Line eastward to

  Grand Isle

• Hurricane Watch: Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New

  Orleans

• Tropical Storm Warning: Louisiana coast east of Sabine Pass to Vermilion-Cameron County Line; east of Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Alabama-Florida border; Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans

• Storm Surge Warning: Cameron, Louisiana, to the Mississippi-Alabama border; Vermilion Bay; Lake Maurepas; Lake Pontchartrain

Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming hours and days as the storm approaches.

Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning area the afternoon of Sept. 11, with tropical storm conditions expected to arrive in the warning area in the coming hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area the afternoon-late Sept. 11.

Francine is forecast to bring storm total rainfall of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches), with local amounts of up to 30 cm (12 inches), across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through late Sept. 12. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated tornadoes are possible over parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Sept. 11.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach up to 1.5-3 meters (5-10 feet) from the Intercoastal City to Port Fourchon in Louisiana as well as in Vermilion Bay. Lesser amounts of storm surge are forecast across parts of the coast of Louisiana and Mississippi. Swells from the system are affecting much of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities in Louisiana and Mississippi have issued a statewide declaration of emergency in advance of the storm. Evacuation orders are in place in parts of Cameron, Jefferson, Lafourche, Plaquemines, and Terrebonne parishes in Louisiana. Voluntary evacuations are in place for Iberia, St. Martin, and St. Mary parishes in Lousiana, the city of Pass Christian in Mississippi, and low-lying coastal areas in Texas, including the Bolivar Peninsula. Lafourche and Washington parishes in Louisiana have declared curfews 12:00 Sept. 11-sunset Sept. 12 and 22:00 Sept. 11-12:00 Sept. 12, respectively. Curfews are also in place in Morgan City and Berwick in St. Mary Parish from 11:00 Sept. 11-06:00 Sept. 12.

Around 130 flights have been canceled at Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport (MSY) Sept. 11; further flight disruptions are likely across the region over the coming hours. Some oil and gas companies have suspended operations and evacuated nonessential personnel on platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Ports from Texas to Alabama are closed or are operating with restrictions. Some schools, hospitals, and clinics in parts of Mississippi and Louisiana, including New Orleans, are closed Sept. 11.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.