Gulf of Mexico: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six tracking north-northwestward over western Gulf of Mexico as of late Sept. 8

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is tracking north-northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico late Sept. 8. As of 22:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 510 km (320 miles) south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande River, US.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a category 1 hurricane as it gradually turns to track north-northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall over southwestern Louisiana, US, the evening of Sept. 11. After landfall, the system is likely to weaken rapidly into a tropical depression as it tracks north-northeastward across Louisiana then eastern Arkansas through the evening of Sept. 12 before dissipating over southeastern Missouri the evening of Sept. 13.

As of late Sept. 8, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Tropical storm watch: Barra del Tordo northward to the mouth of the Rio Grande and the mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield.

Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming hours and days as the storm approaches.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas from Sept. 10. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is forecast to bring storm total rainfall of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches), with local amounts of up to 30 cm (12 inches), from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the Texas Coast and into Louisiana through Sept. 12. This rainfall would lead to the risk of flash and urban flooding.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Mexico coast within areas of onshore flow. Swells generated by the system are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are likely to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through Sept. 11. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.