India: Rallies, tight security likely to intensify in Manipur through late October amid renewed restrictions /update 29

Recurring rallies, tight security measures, and associated disruptions are likely to persist in Manipur State through late October. As of Sept. 10, renewed protest campaigns and clashes between activists and security forces have escalated in several parts of the state, including near marketplaces and government buildings such as the Secretariat and Raj Bhavan (Governor’s House). Activists are denouncing a series of drone and rocket attacks by suspected Kuki militants in Bishnupur and Imphal West District in early September, which marks a significant shift in tactics and a potential escalation in the ongoing conflict.

As of Sept. 10, officials are imposing an indefinite curfew in Imphal East and West districts and have banned public gatherings of five or more people in Bishnupur, Kakching, and Thoubal. The government has also suspended internet services, including certain leased lines, satellite communication systems, broadband access, and VPNs, until 15:00 on Sept. 15. In recent days, the Coordinating Committee on Manipur Integrity has declared a public emergency. Additionally, private educational facilities will be closed in Manipur Sept. 11-12. Essential services remain exempt from the existing security measures.

Activists will likely continue to stage sporadic protests across the state, including shutdown strikes (bandh) and roadblocks. Such actions have previously disrupted cargo delivery and vehicular movement between Imphal and other parts of Manipur. Prolonged roadblocks have also been known to affect the transport of essential goods, such as fuel and foodstuffs, especially to and from the Imphal Valley. Kuki- and Meitei-based organizations typically stage the most disruptive strikes. Typical rally sites include residences of local politicians and security installations, as well as prominent government buildings, public squares, and thoroughfares. Larger gatherings often draw thousands of participants.

Authorities will almost certainly continue to maintain an increased security presence across Manipur for the foreseeable future, potentially imposing further internet and mobile communications suspensions, as well as other restrictions, such as curfews, depending on changing operational needs. The government has deployed paramilitary forces along various state highways to ensure unimpeded transport movement in Manipur.

Police may conduct mass arrests and use force, including rubber bullets, live ammunition, baton charges, and tear gas, to disperse any demonstrations that materialize. Minor bombings, acts of intimidation, clashes, arson, and vandalism targeting rival groups, security personnel, politicians, and government buildings are possible. Kuki militants typically target security personnel near police stations. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are highly likely.