28 Sep 2024 | 03:37 PM UTC
MENA: Protests denouncing the killing of Lebanese Hizballah (LH) leader Hassan Nasrallah likely across the region through early October
Protests denouncing the killing of Hassan Nasrallah likely across Middle East and North Africa through early October. Avoid all protests.
Demonstrations to denounce the death of Lebanese Hizballah (LH) leader Hassan Nasrallah, killed in an Israeli airstrike on Beirut on Sept. 27, are likely across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region through at least early October. Protests have already erupted in Basra and Baghdad, Iraq; Bahrain City, Bahrain; Tehran, Iran; Amman, Jordan; and Beirut, Lebanon. Additional demonstrations are likely, especially throughout Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Iran.
Conflict developments will shape the scale and intensity of the demonstrations, especially as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continue their operations in Lebanon. Demonstrations are most likely to occur near diplomatic missions and offices, particularly those belonging to Israel, the US, and other Western nations. Protests could also materialize near Egypt's and Jordan's borders with Israel, as well as generally at public squares, major government buildings, universities, and mosques in metropolitan areas across the region.
Officials will almost certainly maintain a heightened security presence in areas subject to protest activity to monitor gatherings and manage crowds. Associated transport disruptions are likely in affected areas. Clashes between protesters and security forces are possible. Security personnel in Egypt and Jordan will likely seek to prevent demonstrators from marching toward their respective borders with Israel; confrontations are possible at any such events that materialize. Businesses could also close in response to protests.
An elevated threat of violence is possible near Jewish, Israeli, and overtly Western facilities. Individuals or small groups could attempt to conduct attacks against these sites or individuals associated with them. Assailants could act on behalf of militant groups or alone. Gun, knife, vehicle-ramming, or bomb attacks are possible.
Monitor developments closely. Exercise heightened caution near all likely protest sites and on likely protest days. Avoid all demonstrations as a precaution. Heed the instructions of officials. Plan for localized road transport delays near protest sites. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Western and Israeli nationals should maintain a low public profile. Consider avoiding sensitive topics of conversation, particularly with persons unknown to you.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched several air campaigns throughout Lebanon since Sept. 23, heavily targeting Lebanese Hizballah (LH) targets and resulting in the killing of most of LH senior commanders, including LH leader Hassan Nasrallah. This IDF operation, called "New Order," marks the highest flare-up in tensions between Israel and LH since 2006. The wave of airstrikes the IDF launched against Lebanon on Sept. 23 was the deadliest single-day barrage on the country since it waged war with the LH in 2006; more than 700 people were killed between Sept. 23 and Sept. 28.
