MENA: Protests denouncing the killing of Lebanese Hizballah (LH) leader Hassan Nasrallah likely across the region through early October

Demonstrations to denounce the death of Lebanese Hizballah (LH) leader Hassan Nasrallah, killed in an Israeli airstrike on Beirut on Sept. 27, are likely across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region through at least early October. Protests have already erupted in Basra and Baghdad, Iraq; Bahrain City, Bahrain; Tehran, Iran; Amman, Jordan; and Beirut, Lebanon. Additional demonstrations are likely, especially throughout Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Iran.

Conflict developments will shape the scale and intensity of the demonstrations, especially as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continue their operations in Lebanon. Demonstrations are most likely to occur near diplomatic missions and offices, particularly those belonging to Israel, the US, and other Western nations. Protests could also materialize near Egypt's and Jordan's borders with Israel, as well as generally at public squares, major government buildings, universities, and mosques in metropolitan areas across the region.

Officials will almost certainly maintain a heightened security presence in areas subject to protest activity to monitor gatherings and manage crowds. Associated transport disruptions are likely in affected areas. Clashes between protesters and security forces are possible. Security personnel in Egypt and Jordan will likely seek to prevent demonstrators from marching toward their respective borders with Israel; confrontations are possible at any such events that materialize. Businesses could also close in response to protests.

An elevated threat of violence is possible near Jewish, Israeli, and overtly Western facilities. Individuals or small groups could attempt to conduct attacks against these sites or individuals associated with them. Assailants could act on behalf of militant groups or alone. Gun, knife, vehicle-ramming, or bomb attacks are possible.