Philippine Sea: Typhoon Krathon tracking west-northwestward to the north of the Philippines early Sept. 30 /update 3

Typhoon Krathon (named Julian in the Philippines) is tracking west-northwestward over the Philippine Sea to the north of the Philippines early Sept. 30. As of 11:00 PHST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 557 km (346 miles) south of Taipei, Taiwan.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will make a close approach to the Batanes Islands, Philippines, over the coming hours, passing just south of the islands. Krathon is expected to strengthen slightly as it continues to track west-northwestward through early Oct. 1 before weakening slightly as it turns to track north-northeastward and makes landfall over Kaohsiung in southwestern Taiwan early Oct. 2. The storm will weaken rapidly but remain a typhoon as it tracks north-northeastward across central Taiwan through early Oct. 3 before exiting into the East China Sea the evening of Oct. 3. Krathon is likely to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks north-northeastward across the East China Sea roughly parallel to the coast of Zhejiang Province in China through early Oct. 5. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Sept. 30, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds to northern regions and rough seas to coastal waters. PAGASA has issued the following wind signals for the storm:

• Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 4 (the second highest level on a five-tier scale): Batanes and northern Babuyan Islands.

• TCWS 3: The rest of Babuyan Islands and northeastern mainland Cagayan.

• TCWS 2: The rest of mainland Cagayan, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, and northern and central Ilocos Sur.

• TCWS 1: The rest of Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Benguet, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Aurora, northern and eastern Nueva Ecija, and Polillo Islands.

A separate weather advisory is also in place for heavy rainfall associated with the storm system across northern regions. Rainfall totals of over 20 cm (8 inches) are expected in Batanes and Ilocos Norte provinces and the Babuyan Island through noon Oct. 1. Totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are expected in mainland Cagayan, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Apayao, Abra, and Benguet provinces through noon Oct. 1 and across Batanes Province and the Babuyan Islands noon Oct. 1-2. Rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are expected across other northern parts of Luzon over the coming days. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days as the system progresses.

The Taiwan Central Weather Administration has issued sea and land typhoon warnings and strong wind advisories for Taitung and Pingtung counties. Orange extremely heavy rain advisories (second lowest level on a four-tier scale) are in place across Hualien, Taitung, and Pingtung counties, and yellow heavy rain advisories are in effect across the rest of eastern Taiwan.

Authorities in the Philippines have canceled flights connecting Manila with Cauayan and Tuguegarao Sept. 30. Schools are suspended across most of northern Luzon Sept. 30 until further notice.

Taiwan authorities have urged people to avoid visits to the seaside and mountainous areas. Ferry operators have halted services connecting Pingtung with Siaoliouciou Island Oct. 1-2. Access to Guishan Island off Yilan County has been suspended through Oct. 2. Most public beaches, national parks, and forest recreation areas are closed through at least Oct. 2.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.