Philippines: Tropical Storm Yagi tracking north-northwestward over Isabela Province as of late Sept. 2 /update 1

Tropical Storm Yagi, known in the Philippines as Enteng, is tracking north-northwestward over Isabela Province late Sept. 2 having made landfall over northern Aurora Province early Sept. 2. As of 20:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 307 km (191 miles) northeast of Manila.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken slightly as it tracks northwestward over northern Luzon before entering the South China Sea through early Sept. 3. The system is expected to strengthen rapidly into a typhoon as it tracks northwestward and then westward over the South China Sea Sept. 3-5. The storm is forecast to weaken slightly as it turns to track northwestward and passes over northeastern Hainan Island late Sept. 6 and close to southwestern Guangdong Province early Sept. 7. The system is expected to weaken further but remain a typhoon as it tracks northwestward over the Gulf of Tonkin toward northeastern Vietnam late Sept. 7. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Sept. 2, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has warned of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) of rainfall over Ilocos Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Isabela, Apayao, Abra, Benguet, Zambales, and northern and central Aurora Spet. 2-3 and Ilocos Sur and Abra Sept. 3-4. Rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are forecast over Bataan, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, and the rest of Cagayan Valley and Cordillera Administrative Region Sept. 2-3 and the rest of Ilocos Region and Benguet Sept. 3-4. Forecast rainfall is generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas; flooding and rain-induced landslides are likely, especially in highly susceptible areas and in localities that have experienced considerable amounts of rainfall over the past several days. Tropical cyclone wind signal (TCWS) 2 (on a five-tier scale) is in place over Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Kalinga, northern Abra, eastern Mountain Province, eastern Ifugao, Cagayan including the Babuyan Islands, Isabela, northern Quirino, and northern Aurora. TCWS 1 is in place for the rest of Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, and Quirino, as well as Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Batanes, Ilocos Sur, La Union, eastern Pangasinan, central Aurora, and northeastern Nueva Ecija. Rough seas are also expected across many coastal waters around the Philippines as a result of the storm. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days as the system progresses.

Initial reports indicate at least 11 fatalities across affected areas associated with the passing of the storm. Around 300 families were pre-empively evacuated in the Tondo area of Metro Manila Sept. 2. Government offices and schools have been closed across Calabarzon Region, the National Capital Region, and several other parts of Luzon Sept. 3 due to the severe weather. Dozens of roads are flooded across parts of Metro Manila and surrounding areas late Sept. 2. Severe flooding is also ongoing in neighboring Rizal Province. Around 300 people remain in evacuation shelters in Naga, Bicol Region, due to flooding. At least 29 domestic flights have been canceled due to the storm and several ferry services have been suspended. Reports indicate that more than 2,4000 people are stranded at various seaports across the Eastern Visayas, Bicol, and Calabarzon regions, with the Eastern Visayas Region the worst affected.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.