Russia: Adverse weather forecast to continue across southwestern regions through at least Sept. 7 /update 1

Severe weather is forecast to continue across parts of southwestern Russia through at least Sept. 7. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are forecast across the region over the coming days. Strong wind gusts, lightning, and possible hail may accompany storms. Heavy downpours may lead to flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes. Strong winds may cause property damage and power outages.

As of Sept. 4, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued the following weather warnings across the affected area:

• Orange heavy rainfall warning (the middle level on a three-tier scale): Karachay-Cherkess Republic and Stavropol Kray.

• Orange hazard warning for heavy rain, storms, hail, and wind: Krasnodar Kray, Chechen Republic, Kabardino-Balkar Republic, and Republic of Ingushetia.

• Yellow heavy rain warnings: Chechen Republic, Republic of Ingushetia, and Republic of North Ossetia-Alania.

• Yellow rain-flood warnings: Chechen Republic and Republic of Ingushetia.

• Yellow other hazard warnings: Republic of Adygea.

• Yellow thunderstorm warnings: Republic of Adygea, Republic of Kalmykia, Rostov Oblast, Chechen Republic, Karachay-Cherkess Republic, Republic of Dagestan, Republic of Ingushetia, Republic of North Ossetia-Alania, and Stavropol Kray.

• Yellow mudflow warnings: Chechen Republic and Republic of Ingushetia.

• Yellow strong wind warnings: Krasnodar Kray, Republic of Kalmykia, Rostov Oblast, Chechen Republic, Republic of Ingushetia, and Stavropol Kray.

• Yellow fog warnings: Kabardino-Balkar Republic.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rain has saturated the soil.

Authorities may issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant winds, flooding, and/or landslides impact utility networks.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout the affected area. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles.

Hazardous weather conditions might cause flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.