30 Sep 2024 | 03:55 PM UTC
Russia: Drone and missile strikes likely to continue in western regions through at least mid-October /update 5
Aerial attacks likely across western Russia through at least mid-October. Business, transport disruptions likely. Casualties possible.
Periodic intensification of drone and missile strikes against military depots and infrastructure, hydrocarbon-processing facilities, naval bases, airfields, and defense manufacturers will likely continue across western Russia through at least mid-October. Missile and UAV strikes will likely continue to prompt defensive operations, emergency response, damage to infrastructure and buildings, and possible casualties.
As of late September, Ukrainian forces have intensified strikes targeting multiple ammunition depots in Russia's Tver Oblast on Sept. 17-18 and Volgograd Oblast on Sept. 29. The strikes have reportedly destroyed facilities containing large amounts of ammunition as well as other military equipment.
Drone strikes have also continued targeting hydrocarbon facilities, radar installations, and military airfields up to 1,000 km (600 miles) from Ukrainian-controlled territory. On Sept. 11, Ukrainian drones reportedly targeted Russia's Murmansk Oblast, home to a major strategic airbase and port facilities. The strike prompted temporary civilian flight restrictions. Reports suggest that Russian air defense intercepted all drones targeting the region. Occasional further longer-range operations remain possible.
Long-range missile strikes will likely continue to increase in the coming weeks and months. Although Russian air defense systems may intercept UAVs and missiles, associated disruptions, including falling debris and temporary civilian airspace closure, are likely. Further intensification of strikes against oil facilities and ammunition depots is highly likely.
Authorities will likely maintain tight security near any critical infrastructure in the region over the coming weeks. Occasionally, strikes may hit significant urban centers, resulting in civilian casualties. Localized disruptions, including flight delays, may persist after authorities sound the all-clear. Drones intercepted by air defense systems may cause damage to residential or other business areas. Additional attacks on other critical infrastructure cannot be ruled out.
Monitor official channels for notifications of incoming military strikes. Seek cover or remain indoors in the event of reports of drone activity, and remain in cover until the all-clear is given. During drone or missile attacks stay away from windows and walls bordering outdoor areas.
Although Ukraine rarely claims responsibility for military strikes within Russia, Kyiv is almost certainly responsible for the intermittent strikes and has increasingly claimed responsibility for particularly damaging or high-profile attacks. Strikes on hydrocarbon facilities have intensified in recent weeks: dozens of sites have suffered explosions and fires in 2024. Drone strikes have been reported at hydrocarbon facilities, radar installations, and military airfields up to 1,000 km (600 miles) from Ukrainian-controlled territory. Moreover, the Ukrainian military has received permission to use US-made missiles to target any border areas from which Russian forces are actively attacking. Additionally, the reported missile strike on Murmansk claimed by Ukrainian authorities on July 29 would appear to demonstrate a near doubling of Ukraine's strike range into Russia. Unconfirmed reports indicate that such attacks may have reduced Russian oil refining capacity by 5-12 percent. Bombings targeting Russia’s strategic long-range aerial capabilities have impacted aircraft production facilities, long-range radar installations, strategic bombing aircraft, and airfields.
