30 Sep 2024 | 11:19 AM UTC
Russia, Ukraine: Combat operations ongoing in Russia's Kursk Oblast as of late September /update 9
Ukrainian offensive operations ongoing in Russia's Kursk Oblast bordering Ukraine as of late September. No significant advance confirmed.
Intense combat is likely ongoing across much of Kursk Oblast's line of contact as of late September. Further Ukrainian offensive and Russian counteroffensive operations are likely to continue through early October. No significant territorial changes were reported through late September, following the beginning of Russia's counteroffensive operations in western Kurst Oblast on Sept. 10. Conflicting reporting continues to emerge in regards to Ukraine's offensive operation in Glushkovo District, west of Kyiv's main effort encompassing the towns of Koronevo and Snagost. Russian forces have reportedly continued to launch counteroffensive operations although no confirmed advance was reported through late September.
As of late September, no breakthrough was confirmed in the Glushkovo District; intense combat is likely ongoing. Reporting suggests that Ukrainian forces could be making slow progress despite ongoing Russian counteroffensive operations. Kyiv's troops have likely seized most of the Veseloye settlement, about 8km (4.9 miles) southwest of Glushkovo.
Estimates suggest that Russia has redeployed a considerable amount of personnel in Kursk Oblast, and is preparing defensive infrastructure in case of further offensive operations ordered by Kyiv into Kursk. Ukrainian forces are likely facing experienced and well-trained Russian forces in Kursk Oblast; however, Russian forces have been unable to dislodge Ukrainian troops from the region by the deadline imposed by President Putin, Oct. 1. Moreover, Russia's capabilities will likely continue to be hampered by Ukraine's aerial strikes into Russian territory. The ongoing aerial campaign targeting Russia's military capabilities will likely impact Moscow's military operations in the long and medium term.
Russian authorities have maintained enhanced security protocols in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts since early August. On Aug. 9, authorities announced a counterterrorist operations regime in these oblasts. In Kursk Oblast, the regime was elevated to a federal-level state of emergency on the same day. In Belgorod Oblast, a state of emergency was announced on Aug. 15. Security measures will likely continue until the end of Ukraine's military operations in Russia.
Artillery fire, aerial attacks, and ground combat operations will likely continue in the coming days. Strikes may cause structural damage and civilian casualties. Water, electricity, and telecommunications outages are likely to continue near the combat areas. Increased law enforcement and military deployments are likely across Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts. Officials may set up additional security checkpoints and conduct vehicular checks. Authorities could also implement travel restrictions, closing or limiting access to or exit from certain locations based on operational needs, as well as restrict telecommunications services. Either party may expand military operations in response to conditions on the ground.
Consider avoiding nonessential travel to active conflict zones in Russia's Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts and to border areas in Ukraine's Sumy Region until the situation stabilizes. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in the region. Shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance (UXO), avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected UXO.
Ukrainian forces operating in Kursk Oblast will likely attempt to remain on Russian territory in the medium-to-long term. Although the aims and true extent of the offensive continue to remain unclear, reports suggest that the ongoing Ukrainian entrenchment efforts, as well as the intervention of humanitarian operators in seized areas, indicate a significant Ukrainian commitment to maintain all gains made in Kursk Oblast. This marks a substantial difference between Kyiv's ongoing operations and previous Ukrainian incursions into Russian territory. Moreover, the Armed Forces of Ukraine's (AFU) involvement strongly contrasts with previous incursions, which were conducted by Ukraine-based Russian militant groups (primarily the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion).
Russian forces have likely redeployed some of their available manpower and vehicles to respond to the ongoing offensive in Kursk Oblast; however, Russia's gains into eastern Ukraine have continued through late August and into early September, indicating that Russia's strategic priority remains to advance within the Donbas and prosecute its assault toward Pokrovsk.
The AFU's advance into Kursk has significantly slowed since its early days, a likely indicator that Russian forces are committing more and better-trained troops to defensive operations to slow down Ukrainian assaults.
Nonetheless, Moscow is unlikely to fully dislodge Ukrainian troops currently in Kursk Oblast. Local authorities have offered cash to persons willing to dig trenches for Moscow's forces, indicating that Russia's manpower and logistical capabilities continue to be sparse in the area.
