02 Sep 2024 | 07:39 PM UTC
Russia, Ukraine: Ukrainian offensive operations ongoing in Russia's Kursk Oblast as of early September /update 7
Combat continues in Russia's Kursk Oblast bordering Ukraine as of early September; no significant changes reported on line of contact.
Ukrainian offensive operations into Russia's Kursk Oblast have continued as of early September. Intense combat continues to be reported along the line of contact in Kursk Oblast. Russian and Ukrainian forces have been exchanging territory in areas east of Korenevo in recent weeks, although no significant change has been reported on the front line. Ukrainian forces have reportedly retreated from some small settlements east of Korenevo; additionally, marginal Ukrainian gains have been reported near Sudzha. Ukrainian forces' penetration continues to be assessed at around 35 km (22 miles) into Russian territory as of early September. Russian authorities claimed that Ukrainian forces launched a limited offensive operation attempting to capture Zhuravlevka village in Belgorod Oblast in late August. As of early September, no significant change was reported on the front line between Ukraine and Belgorod Oblast. Further strikes targeting critical infrastructure in Kursk Oblast are likely to occur while operations continue. Military losses on both sides remain unclear.
Ukrainian forces are reportedly digging defensive structures in Kursk Oblast and have likely reinforced their presence in Russia. Moscow has likely repurposed a number of units originally destined for the ongoing operations in eastern Ukraine to the Kursk area. Nonetheless, Russia's advance in the Donbas region has continued as of early September. Belarus has reportedly started sending military aid in the form of equipment and vehicles to Russian forces deployed in Kursk and other areas following an urgent request made in the early days of Ukraine's offensive operations in Kursk.
Russian authorities have implemented enhanced security regimes in the Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts since early August. On Aug. 9, authorities announced a counterterrorist operations regime in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts, citing an increased threat of Ukrainian sabotage and diversionary operations. In Kursk Oblast, the regime was elevated to a federal-level state of emergency on the same day. In Belgorod Oblast, a state of emergency was announced on Aug. 15. Security measures will likely continue to remain in place until the end of Ukraine's military operations in Russia. Ukrainian authorities have reported that humanitarian aid from Ukraine was reaching Sudzha as of mid-August in support of the local civilian population affected by military operations.
Artillery fire, aerial attacks, and ground combat operations will likely continue in the coming days. Strikes may cause structural damage and civilian casualties. Water, electricity, and telecommunications outages are likely to continue near the combat areas. Increased law enforcement and military deployments are likely across Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts. Officials may set up additional security checkpoints and conduct vehicular checks. Authorities could also implement travel restrictions, closing or limiting access to or exit from certain locations based on operational needs, as well as restrict telecommunications services. Either party may expand military operations in response to conditions on the ground.
Avoid travel to active conflict zones in Russia's Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts and to border areas in Ukraine's Sumy Region. Consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in the region. Shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance (UXO), avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected UXO.
Ukrainian forces operating in Kursk Oblast will likely attempt to remain on Russian territory in the medium-to-long term. Although the aims and true extent of the offensive continue to remain unclear, reports suggest that the ongoing Ukrainian entrenchment efforts, as well as the intervention of humanitarian operators in seized areas, indicate a significant Ukrainian commitment to maintain all gains made in Kursk Oblast. This marks a substantial difference between Kyiv's ongoing operations and previous Ukrainian incursions into Russian territory. Moreover, the Armed Forces of Ukraine's (AFU) involvement strongly contrasts with previous incursions, which were conducted by Ukraine-based Russian militant groups (primarily the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion).
Russian forces have likely redeployed some of their available manpower and vehicles to respond to the ongoing offensive in Kursk Oblast; however, Russia's gains into eastern Ukraine have continued through late August and into early September, indicating that Russia's strategic priority remains to advance within Donbas and prosecute its assault toward Pokrovsk.
The AFU's advance into Kursk has significantly slowed since its early days, a likely indicator that Russian forces are committing more and better-trained troops to defensive operations to slow down Ukrainian assaults.
Nonetheless, Moscow is unlikely to fully dislodge Ukrainian troops currently in Kursk Oblast. Local authorities have offered cash to persons willing to dig trenches for Moscow's forces, indicating that Russia's manpower and logistical capabilities continue to be sparse in the area.
