16 Sep 2024 | 08:58 AM UTC
Russia, Ukraine: Ukrainian offensive operations ongoing in Russia's Kursk Oblast as of mid-September /update 8
Combat continues in Russia's Kursk Oblast bordering Ukraine as of mid-September; Russian counteroffensive operations ongoing.
Russian forces launched counteroffensive operations in western Kurst Oblast on Sept. 10 reportedly making progress in the Koronevo area. Counterattacks were launched in the direction of Krsnooktyabrskoe and Snagost, settlements southwest of Koronevo. The area is likely contested as of Sept. 16. Counteroffensive operations were also reported in the area of Zhuravli, a settlement located 11 km (6.8 miles) east of Koronevo. As of mid-September, Ukrainian forces launched further offensive operations in the Glushkovo District, west of Koronevo. However, the situation remains fluid, and the degree of success of ongoing operations remains unclear. In the Sudzha area, Ukrainian offensive operations are ongoing, although no significant change has occurred throughout the reporting period Sept. 2-16. Ukrainian forces' penetration continues to be assessed at around 35 km (22 miles) into Russian territory as of early September. As of early September, no significant change was reported on the front line between Ukraine and Belgorod Oblast. Further strikes targeting critical infrastructure in Kursk Oblast are likely to occur while operations continue. Military losses on both sides remain unclear.
President Putin claimed that Ukrainian forces will be driven out of Kursk Oblast by Oct. 1; Russia has reportedly repurposed experienced troops from Ukraine's Kharkiv area to Kursk Oblast, and are currently engaged in counteroffensive operations. Reporting suggests that around 8,000 Russian soldiers are engaged in the operations around Koronevo, south of the Sejim River. Ukrainian troops in the area are likely maintaining a defensive posture to cause significant losses to Russia's attacking forces. The ongoing Ukrainian offensive in the southern Glushkovo District could be attempting to flank Russian forces currently engaged in counteroffensive operations west of Koronevo. Further intense combat, artillery strikes, and airstrikes are likely south of Glushkovo, as well as on Ukrainian territory north of Sumy.
Russian authorities have maintained enhanced security protocols in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts since early August. On Aug. 9, authorities announced a counterterrorist operations regime in these oblasts, citing an increased threat of Ukrainian sabotage and diversionary operations. In Kursk Oblast, the regime was elevated to a federal-level state of emergency on the same day. In Belgorod Oblast, a state of emergency was announced on Aug. 15. Security measures will likely continue to remain in place until the end of Ukraine's military operations in Russia.
Artillery fire, aerial attacks, and ground combat operations will likely continue in the coming days. Strikes may cause structural damage and civilian casualties. Water, electricity, and telecommunications outages are likely to continue near the combat areas. Increased law enforcement and military deployments are likely across Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts. Officials may set up additional security checkpoints and conduct vehicular checks. Authorities could also implement travel restrictions, closing or limiting access to or exit from certain locations based on operational needs, as well as restrict telecommunications services. Either party may expand military operations in response to conditions on the ground.
Avoid travel to active conflict zones in Russia's Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts and to border areas in Ukraine's Sumy Region. Consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in the region. Shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance (UXO), avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected UXO.
Ukrainian forces operating in Kursk Oblast will likely attempt to remain on Russian territory in the medium-to-long term. Although the aims and true extent of the offensive continue to remain unclear, reports suggest that the ongoing Ukrainian entrenchment efforts, as well as the intervention of humanitarian operators in seized areas, indicate a significant Ukrainian commitment to maintain all gains made in Kursk Oblast. This marks a substantial difference between Kyiv's ongoing operations and previous Ukrainian incursions into Russian territory. Moreover, the Armed Forces of Ukraine's (AFU) involvement strongly contrasts with previous incursions, which were conducted by Ukraine-based Russian militant groups (primarily the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion).
Russian forces have likely redeployed some of their available manpower and vehicles to respond to the ongoing offensive in Kursk Oblast; however, Russia's gains into eastern Ukraine have continued through late August and into early September, indicating that Russia's strategic priority remains to advance within the Donbas and prosecute its assault toward Pokrovsk.
The AFU's advance into Kursk has significantly slowed since its early days, a likely indicator that Russian forces are committing more and better-trained troops to defensive operations to slow down Ukrainian assaults.
Nonetheless, Moscow is unlikely to fully dislodge Ukrainian troops currently in Kursk Oblast. Local authorities have offered cash to persons willing to dig trenches for Moscow's forces, indicating that Russia's manpower and logistical capabilities continue to be sparse in the area.
