18 Sep 2024 | 08:56 AM UTC
South China Sea: Tropical Depression 16W tracking west-southwestward in the South China Sea as of Sept. 18
TD 16W tracing west-southwestward in the South China Sea Sept. 18. Landfall forecast over Quang Binh Province, Vietnam, early Sept. 20.
Tropical Depression 16W has formed in the South China Sea and is tracking west-southwestward towards central Vietnam Sept. 18. As of 13:00 ICT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 526 km km (327 miles) south of Hong Kong.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a tropical storm as it tracks west-southwestward and then westward past the Paracel islands Sept. 18-19. The system is expected to weaken back into a tropical depression as it turns to track northwestward late Sept. 19 before making landfall over Quang Binh Province in central Vietnam early Sept. 20. The system will weaken further and dissipate as it tracks northwestward over Ha Tinh Province and into centraL Laos Sept. 20. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.
Vietnam's National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting (NCHMF) has issued an emergency warning for the storm system, advising that rough seas, storms, and strong winds are expected over the sea off central Vietnam over the coming days. Strong winds are expected in coastal areas from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai provinces from early Sept. 19. Heavy rainfall is forecast in parts of central and northern Vietnam Sept. 18-20, with rainfall totals of 10-30 cm (4-12 inches) likely and localized amounts of over 50 cm (20 inches) possible. Lesser amounts of 3-6 cm (1.2-2.4 inches) with localized higher totals of over 10 cm (4 inches) are expected in the Central Highlands and southern regions.
The China Meteorological Administration has issued a yellow rainstorm warning (the second lowest level on a four-tier scale) over Hainan Province as of Sept. 18. Rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are possible in southeastern parts of Hainan Sept. 18-19.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
