US: Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 tracking north-northwestward towards South Carolina as of Sept. 16 /update 1

Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 is tracking north-northwestward across the North Atlantic Ocean towards South Carolina Sept. 16. As of 11:00 EDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 70 km (115 miles) south-southwest of Cape Fear, North Carolina.

Forecast models indicate that there is a chance the system could develop into a tropical storm but will more likely fail to form before making landfall over South Carolina near Surfside Beach early evening Sept. 16. The system will weaken as the remnant low moves northwestward inland over eastern South Carolina late Sept. 16-early Sept. 17, before dissipating as it moves into North Carolina late Sept. 17.

As of Sept. 16, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Tropical Storm Warning: South Santee River, South Carolina, northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina

Authorities will likely update and extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming hours and days as the storm approaches.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area over the next few hours. The storm is forecast to bring rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) with isolated totals around 25 cm (10 inches) over parts of northeast South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through early Sept. 16. Rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) with isolated totals up to 15 cm (6 inches) is forecast across the rest of North Carolina through Sept. 17 and totals of 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) with localized higher amounts much of Virginia through Sept. 18. This rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. Isolated tornadoes may occur across eastern North Carolina late Sept. 16.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach up to 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) from the South Santee River in South Carolina to Oregon Inlet in North Carolina and the Neuse, Bay, Pamlico, and Pungo rivers in North Carolina. Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern US through Sept. 17. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.