US: Tropical Depression Francine tracking northward across central Mississippi as of Sept. 12 /update 6

Tropical Depression Francine is tracking northward over central Mississippi on Sept. 12 following landfall as a Category 2 hurricane over Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, in the evening of Sept. 11. As of 10:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 25 km (15 miles) north-northeast of Jackson, Mississippi. Forecast models indicate that the storm will transition into a post-tropical cyclone and then dissipate as it tracks generally northward over the Arkansas-Tennessee border area Sept. 13. Further heavy rainfall and associated flooding are expected across parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle in the coming hours.

As of Sept. 12, authorities have discontinued all storm surge and coastal warnings for the storm. The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued numerous flash flood warnings, flood watches, and tornado watches across the wider region due to adverse weather associated with the storm system. Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming hours and days.

Winds gusting up to tropical storm-force are possible over parts of central Mississippi and western Alabama over the coming hours. Francine is forecast to bring storm total rainfall of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) across parts of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle, with localized totals of over 30 cm (12 inches) possible over parts of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and Georgia. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated tornadoes are possible over parts of the Florida Panhandle, southern and central Alabama, and southwestern Georgia Sept. 12.

Water levels remain elevated along the Gulf Coast between eastern Louisiana and Alabama but will recede through Sept. 12. Swells from the system are expected to subside along the northern Gulf Coast Sept. 12. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities in Louisiana and Mississippi issued a statewide declaration of emergency in advance of the storm, while President Joe Biden declared a state of federal emergency in Louisiana late Sept. 11. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations and curfews were ordered in coastal areas of Louisiana, Texas, and Mississippi ahead of the storm's approach. All flights were canceled at Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport (MSY) Sept. 11, and some flights remain canceled early Sept. 12, affecting more than 150 flights; further flight disruptions are likely across the region over the coming hours. Some oil and gas companies have suspended operations and evacuated nonessential personnel on platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Ports from Texas to Alabama have been closed or are operating with restrictions. Some schools, hospitals, and clinics in parts of Mississippi and Louisiana, including New Orleans, are closed through at least Sept. 12.

As of early Sept. 12, more than 376,000 customers across Louisiana are without power, as well as more than 50,000 customers across Mississippi and more than 18,500 customers across Alabama. Authorities in New Orleans have told residents to conserve water as power outages are causing issues at pump stations. The sewer system in Jefferson Parish is overwhelmed; residents are asked to conserve water to help avoid backups. Road closures have been reported due to flooding in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi and around 100 homes were flooded in Kenner outside New Orleans in Louisiana. Emergency services reduced 26 people due to rising floodwaters in Lafourche Parish, Louisiana, late Sept. 11. Damage assessments are ongoing in the region Sept. 12.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.