US: Tropical Storm Francine tracking northeastward across eastern Louisiana as of late Sept. 11 /update 5

Tropical Storm Francine is tracking northeastward over eastern Louisiana late Sept. 11 following landfall over Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, earlier in the evening. As of 22:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 55 km (35 miles) west-northwest of New Orleans, Louisiana.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken further into a tropical depression as it tracks north-northeastward and then northward over Mississippi through Sept. 12. The system will continue to weaken as it transitions into a post-tropical cyclone and then dissipates as it tracks generally northward over the Arkansas-Tennessee border area late Sept. 13. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Sept. 11, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Tropical Storm Warning: Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Alabama-Florida border, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans

• Storm Surge Warning: Avery Island, Louisiana to the Mississippi-Alabama border, Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain

Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming hours and days as the storm approaches.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions of the warning area through early Sept. 12. Francine is forecast to bring storm total rainfall of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches), with local amounts of up to 30 cm (12 inches), across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through late Sept. 12. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated tornadoes are possible over parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through early Sept. 12 before moving into additional parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle Sept. 12.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach up to 2.4-3 meters (5-8 feet) from Burns Point to Port Fourchon in Louisiana. Lesser amounts of storm surge are forecast across parts of the coast of Louisiana and Mississippi. Swells from the system are affecting much of the northern Gulf Coast. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities in Louisiana and Mississippi have issued a statewide declaration of emergency in advance of the storm, while President Joe Biden declared a state of federal emergency in Louisiana late Sept. 11. Evacuation orders are in place in parts of Cameron, Jefferson, Lafourche, Plaquemines, and Terrebonne parishes in Louisiana. Voluntary evacuations are in place for Iberia, St. Martin, and St. Mary parishes in Lousiana, the city of Pass Christian in Mississippi, and low-lying coastal areas in Texas, including the Bolivar Peninsula. Terrebonne Parish is under a mandatory curfew until further notice. Lafourche and Washington parishes in Louisiana have declared curfews through sunset Sept. 12 and 12:00 Sept. 12, respectively. Curfews are also in place in Morgan City and Berwick in St. Mary Parish through 06:00 Sept. 12. Authorities in New Orleans have told residents to conserve water as power outages are causing issues at pump stations. The sewer system in Jefferson Parish is overwhelmed; residents are asked to conserve water to help avoid backups.

All flights have been canceled at Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport (MSY) Sept. 11, and some flights remain canceled early Sept. 12, affecting more than 150 flights; further flight disruptions are likely across the region over the coming hours. Some oil and gas companies have suspended operations and evacuated nonessential personnel on platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Ports from Texas to Alabama are closed or are operating with restrictions. Some schools, hospitals, and clinics in parts of Mississippi and Louisiana, including New Orleans, are closed through at least Sept. 12. As of late Sept. 11, More than 289,000 people across Louisiana are without power.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.