US: Tropical Storm Helene tracking northward inland over central Georgia early Sept. 27 /update 7

Helene has weakened to a tropical storm and is tracking northward inland over central Georgia early Sept. 27, having made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near Perry in Florida's Big Bend region around 11:10 EDT Sept. 26. As of 05:00, the system's center of circulation was approximately 65 km (40 miles) east of Macon, Georgia.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken and transition into a post-tropical depression as it tracks north-northwestward over northern Georgia, far western North Carolina, and eastern Tennessee Sept. 27. The remnants of the system are expected to turn to track west-northwestward over northern Tennessee late Sept. 27 before stalling over southern Kentucky Sept. 28-29. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours and days.

As of early Sept. 27, authorities are maintaining the following warnings:

Tropical Storm Warning

• The mouth of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida

• The Flagler/Volusia county line, Florida, northward to Little River Inlet, South Carolina

Storm Surge Warning

• Indian Pass to Bonita Beach, Florida

• Tampa Bay, Florida

The National Weather Services (NWS) has issued multiple tornado warnings, flash flood warnings, and flood warnings, as well as watches and advisories, across the southeastern US and the Tennessee Valley. As the storm system evolves, authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming hours and days.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring from northern Florida through eastern Georgia into southern South Carolina, and these conditions will continue spreading northward across the tropical storm warning areas in the southeastern U.S. through Sept. 27. Strong, damaging winds will likely penetrate as far inland as the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

The storm is forecast to generate rainfall amounts of 15-30 cm (6-12 inches) with isolated higher totals around 50 cm (20 inches) over parts of the southeastern US into the southern Appalachian mountains. This rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding. Numerous significant landslides are likely in the steep terrain across the southern Appalachians. Tornadoes are possible over parts of eastern Georgia through the morning Sept. 27 and over the Carolinas and southern Virginia through the afternoon Sept. 27.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. If peak surge occurs at the time of high tide, waters could reach up to 1.5-3 meters (5-10 feet) above normal levels between the Aucilla River and Chassahowitzka in Florida and 0.9-2.1 meters (3-7 feet) along other parts of Florida's Gulf Coast. Swells generated by Helene will continue to affect much of Florida, the coasts of Georgia, and the Carolinas over the coming days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Flooding, damage, and downed power lines have been reported across parts of Florida and Georgia as of early Sept. 27; damage assessments are ongoing and it will likely take some time before the full impact of the storm is confirmed. Authorities have reported two storm-related fatalities in Georgia, one in Florida, and one in North Carolina. More than 1.2 million customers in Florida, more than 840,000 in Georgia, more than 500,000 in South Carolina, and more than 100,000 in North Carolina are without power as of early Sept. 27.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency across 41 of the state's 67 counties Sept. 23 before expanding it to 61 counties Sept. 24. President Joe Biden approved a federal emergency declaration for Florida Sept. 24 and for Alabama Sept. 26. States of emergency have also been declared in Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia. Mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders are in place across dozens of counties in Florida; the latest information regarding evacuation areas can be found here. More than 1,600 people across Leon County have taken shelter. Authorities have warned Tampa residents that it is too late to evacuate; residents should shelter in place. A curfew is also in effect from sunrise to sunset in Taylor County. Voluntary evacuation orders are also in place for Haywood County in North Carolina. Several schools and universities are closed across parts of Florida and Georgia.

Thousands of flights have been canceled and delayed across the southeastern US since Sept. 25, with Tampa, Fort Myers, and Atlanta among the worst affected locations. Tampa International (TPA), St. Pete-Clearwater International (PIE), Tallahassee International (TLH), Peter O. Knight (TPF), Tampa Executive (VDF), and Plant City (PCM) airports suspended operations Sept. 26; services are likely to resume after damage assessments. Other airports affected by cancelations and delays include Southwest Florida International (RSW), Sarasota-Bradenton International (SRQ), Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International (ATL), Charlotte Douglas International (CLT), Jacksonville International (JAX), Miami International (MIA), Fort Lauderdale–Hollywood International (FLL), and Orlando International (MCO) airports. The Palma Sola Causeway connecting the Bradenton area to Ana Maria Island in Florida is closed.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.