Australia: Threat of bushfires likely to persist across much of the country through at least March 2025

The threat of bushfires is likely to persist across much of Australia through at least March 2025, causing sporadic, localized disruptions to transport and business operations. Wildfires are a typical feature of the spring, summer, and early fall in the country, particularly after long dry spells or during spans of extremely high temperatures. Peak bushfire season varies depending on region, with bushfire activity most likely in spring and summer (September-February) across much of the country, with the exception of northern regions where activity peaks in winter and spring (June-November) and far southern regions where activity peaks in summer and autumn (December-May).

Spring 2024 forecast models indicate an above-average fire potential across much of the Northern Territory and Queensland due to increased fuel loads and parts of far southeastern South Australia and western Victoria due to warm and dry conditions. There is a normal wildfire risk potential across most of the rest of the country, with anticipated higher temperatures being countered by above-average rainfall.

Bushfires can lead to evacuations, road closures, and ground transport diversions. Disruptions to arterial roads are possible. The scarcity of alternative routes in some areas means that significant transport disruptions are possible at times. While authorities are experienced in minimizing the potential impact, roads in remote regions are likely to be disrupted for longer periods than urban roads due to their relative inaccessibility. Authorities could close routes in bushfire complexes and evacuate communities due to fire activity and the needs of response operations. Traffic flows could also be disrupted during reentry periods after authorities lift evacuation orders.

Low visibility from smoke and possible ashfall could contribute to traffic delays and congestion and prompt short-notice flight disruptions if bushfires occur near airports. Railways can also experience occasional cancellations of services and long delays. Power outages are possible in places due to damaged infrastructure or intentional power cuts to prevent infrastructure damage or help prevent the spread of the fires.

Smoke from wildfires is a mixture of gases and fine particles from burning trees, plants, and possibly building materials. It can hurt eyes, irritate the respiratory system, and worsen chronic heart and lung diseases. Smoke may also worsen symptoms for people who have pre-existing respiratory conditions, such as respiratory allergies, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).