31 Oct 2024 | 08:46 AM UTC
Botswana: Increased security likely nationwide through early November after general election /update 2
Increased security likely nationwide in Botswana through early November after general election on Oct. 30.
Increased security is likely nationwide through early November after parliamentary and local elections on Oct. 30. It is unclear when the results will be available. The campaign and election day proceeded largely peacefully; minor disruptions did not appear to hinder the process. Incumbent President Mokgweetsi Masisi and the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) are favored to win. The main opposition will likely remain Duma Boko of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), who received over a third of the vote in 2019. Mephato Reatile of the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) has received the support of former President Ian Khama and could also challenge the BDP.
Elections in Botswana have historically remained peaceful; however, the narrowing gap between the BDP and opposition parties could lead to increased electoral tensions following the announcement of the result. Increased security is likely throughout the vote counting, especially near polling stations and government offices. Rallies, protests, and political events are likely in the coming days. Travel disruptions are likely near events. Violence between opposing supporters or with security services, while unlikely, remains possible.
Plan for increased security in the coming days, especially following the announcement of the results. Exercise caution near polling offices, rallies, or demonstration sites. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Refrain from wearing ostensibly bright colors - red, blue, or yellow - if traveling near a political gathering location for fear of being mistaken for a party supporter. Follow instructions issued by local authorities. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.
Botswana has held democratic elections every five years since its independence, through which it elects 57 members to the unicameral National Assembly. The parliamentarians are elected through a constituency-based system; six are elected from within the National Assembly, and the President and Speaker are additional ex officio members. While the BDP has always been the leading party, it suffered a progressive decline, dropping below 50 percent in 2014 but rebounding to 53 percent in 2019.
The election has been overshadowed by the personal rivalry opposing the incumbent president and his predecessor. Masisi took over the BDP and presidency after being hand-picked by Khama. However, a fallout led to Khama fleeing to neighboring South Africa. Batswana authorities issued arrest warrants against Khama over unlawful possession of firearms; Khama claimed that he would be poisoned if he returned to Botswana. Despite the tensions, no major disruptions or violence have thus far arisen. The most disruptive event was a UDC protest against alleged foreign interference in the election near the Zimbabwean embassy in Gaborone on Oct. 26.
