29 Oct 2024 | 08:50 AM UTC
Botswana: Likely increased security nationwide during and following Oct. 30 general election /update 1
Increased security likely nationwide in Botswana during and following Oct. 30 general election. Plan for disruptions; monitor for updates.
Botswana will hold its next parliamentary and local elections on Oct. 30. Incumbent President Mokgweetsi Masisi and the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) are favored to win. The main opposition will likely remain Duma Boko of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), who received over a third of the vote in 2019. Mephato Reatile of the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) has received the support of former President Ian Khama and could also challenge the BDP. The political campaign proceeded largely peacefully, with the most disruptive event being a UDC protest against alleged foreign interference in the election near the Zimbabwean embassy in Gaborone on Oct. 26.
Elections in Botswana have historically remained peaceful; however, the narrowing gap between the BDP and opposition parties could lead to increased electoral tensions throughout the process. Increased security is likely on election day and during the vote counting, especially near polling stations and government offices. Rallies, protests, and political events are likely in the days following the election. Travel disruptions are likely near events. Violence between opposing supporters or with security services, while unlikely, remains possible.
Plan for increased security, business closures, and employee absenteeism on Oct. 30 and the following days. Exercise caution near polling offices, rallies, or demonstration sites. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Refrain from wearing ostensibly bright colors - red, blue, or yellow - if traveling near a political gathering location for fear of being mistaken for a party supporter. Follow instructions issued by local authorities. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.
Botswana has held democratic elections every five years since its independence, through which it elects 57 members to the unicameral National Assembly. The parliamentarians are elected through a constituency-based system; six are elected from within the National Assembly, and the President and Speaker are additional ex officio members. While the BDP has always been the leading party, it suffered a progressive decline, dropping below 50 percent in 2014 but rebounding to 53 percent in 2019.
The election has been overshadowed by the personal rivalry opposing the incumbent president and his predecessor. Masisi took over the BDP and presidency after being hand-picked by Khama. However, a fallout led to Khama fleeing to neighboring South Africa. Batswana authorities issued arrest warrants against Khama over unlawful possession of firearms; Khama claimed that he would be poisoned if he returned to Botswana.
