Cuba: Tropical Storm Oscar tracking westward over Guantanamo Province early Oct. 21 /update 3

Tropical Storm Oscar is tracking westward across Guantanamo Province in Cuba early Oct. 21 after making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane near Baracoa at around 18:10 Oct. 20. As of 05:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 10 km (5 miles) east of Guantanamo.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken slightly as it tracks northwestward into eastern Holguin Province through the afternoon of Oct. 21, before turning north-northeastward and exiting into the North Atlantic Ocean. Oscar is then forecast to track north-northeastward and then northeastward towards the southeastern Bahamas late Oct. 21-early Oct. 22 and is currently forecast to make landfall over Crooked Island late morning Oct. 22 and Samana Cay during the afternoon Oct. 22. After passing the Bahamas, the system is expected to maintain tropical storm strength as it tracks northeastward further out into the North Atlantic Ocean Oct. 23. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Oct. 21, officials had issued the following warnings and watches in connection with Hurricane Oscar:

• Tropical Storm Warning: North coast of the Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi, the south coast of Guantanamo Province, and the southeastern Bahamas.

• Tropical Storm Watch: North coast of Camaguey Province in Cuba and the central Bahamas.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and potentially in the watch area of Cuba Oct. 21. Tropical storm conditions are also expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and possibly in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas late Oct. 21-22.

Oscar is forecast to bring rainfall totals of 18-36 cm (7-14 inches) with localized higher amounts up to 51 cm (20 inches) through Oct. 23 across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will likely lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Rainfall totals of 8-13 cm (3-5 inches) with localized higher rainfall amounts of 20 cm (8 inches) are forecast over the southeastern Bahamas. Elevated water levels in areas of onshore flow along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside through early Oct. 22, with large and destructive waves still possible over the coming hours.

The Cuban government has suspended non-essential administrative and educational activities nationwide due to both the storm system and ongoing widespread power supply issues that have been affecting the country in recent days. Adverse weather associated with Oscar will likely exacerbate the situation with electricity supply due to damage to power lines and other infrastructure.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.