Europe: Further rallies and security alerts related to the Israel-Hamas and Israel-Hizballah conflicts are likely regionwide through November /update 17

Protests and demonstrations in response to the Israel-Hamas and Israel-Hizballah conflicts will likely continue in major cities across Europe through at least November. Spikes in protest activity are likely to occur following high-casualty events in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East or in proximity to significant dates and anniversaries associated with the ongoing conflict. Occasional security incidents, including shootings and bomb threats, are likely to occur near Israeli embassies, consulates, and synagogues across Europe. Authorities across Europe will likely continue to maintain increased security measures in response to terrorism threat assessments.

Campaign groups across Europe have intensified protest activity following Israel's strikes against Lebanese Hizballah (LH) in Lebanon and the anniversary of the beginning of hostilities in October, and will likely continue through November.

Protest Activity
Related demonstrations are ongoing and will likely continue to occur in cities across the region as the conflict in the Middle East persists. Periodic rallies, on a weekly or monthly rotation, continue to occur in capital cities and minor urban centers across Europe, led by local organizations. These rallies usually have limited participation and attract between a few dozen and several hundred attendees. Large demonstrations continue to be prompted by various developments, including high-casualty incidents, new offensives, humanitarian pauses, diplomatic efforts, and trial proceedings at the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court.

Further demonstrations will likely continue to take place in public squares, city centers, government buildings, major transport hubs, mosques and Islamic cultural centers, synagogues, Palestinian diplomatic offices, and Israeli embassies or consulates. Demonstrations and sit-ins may occur at universities, particularly in France and the UK. Protesters in Denmark, Turkiye, and the UK have targeted defense industry companies and Western franchise restaurants with perceived links to Israel. Occasionally, protests also occur near major broadcasting facilities. In Turkiye and Cyprus, demonstrations have taken place near US and UK military bases, respectively. Tight security typically accompanies related demonstrations. Clashes between rival groups of demonstrators or between demonstrators and police are possible. Localized business disruptions and road travel delays are likely near any protests that materialize. Authorities typically deploy additional police to monitor protests and demonstrations related to the Israel-Hamas and Israel-Hizballah conflicts.

Heightened Security
The latest countries to increase their terrorism-related security postures are Cyprus and Norway, which heightened their security posture following the escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah and Israel-Iran conflicts in early October. Cypriot authorities maintain increased security at key points, including infrastructure, airports, ports, embassies, and religious sites, and strengthened surveillance of maritime borders and the buffer zone. The Norwegian Police Security Service (PST) raised the country’s terrorism threat level from three to four, the second-highest level on a five-tier system. In line with this decision, authorities are increasing security deployments and mandating all police to carry firearms.

The UK, Germany, and France have reportedly increased security measures near Israeli diplomatic missions, synagogues, and other sensitive locations, as well as mosques and religious schools; the changes respond to an overall increase in antisemitic and Islamophobic crimes since early October. Jewish communities are likely to continue to be subject to possible security incidents, including terrorist attacks, targeted arson, shootings, and other security threats as of late October. Recent confirmed incidents include a shooting near the Israeli Embassy in Stockholm, Sweden, on Oct. 1, and two explosions that occurred near the Israeli Embassy in Copenhagen, Denmark, early on Oct. 2. Further incidents near or targeting Israeli interests across Europe will likely continue to prompt national authorities to review security alert levels.

Authorities will likely maintain elevated security across Europe until the threat has diminished. Law enforcement personnel will likely continue to be deployed near sensitive sites and potential targets, including government offices, synagogues and mosques, and Israeli, Palestinian, Jewish, and Islamic interests. Security-related disruptions are possible for international arrivals at airports, maritime ports, and land border crossings. The following countries across the Schengen Area have temporarily reintroduced heightened border security in response to the region-wide elevated terrorist threat: Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Slovenia, and Sweden.

As a precaution, responses to potential security incidents, including suspicious packages and bomb threats, will likely be enhanced throughout the region in the coming weeks. Precautionary security force reactions, including evacuations and search operations, will likely prompt short notice and short-term business and public transport disruptions. Additional security procedures may disrupt organized gatherings such as conferences, religious and public commemorations, and sporting and other cultural events.