Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane Milton tracking east-southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico morning Oct. 7 /update 2

Hurricane Milton has strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane and is tracking east-southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico early Oct. 7. As of 10:00 CDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 210 km (130 miles) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a Category 5 hurricane as it tracks east-southeastward and then east-northeastward just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula Oct. 7-early Oct. 8. Milton will then likely weaken back into a Category 4 hurricane as it turns to track northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Oct. 8-9, and is currently forecast to weaken into a category 3 hurricane just before making landfall on the west coast of the Florida Peninsula near Tampa Bay the evening of Oct. 9. The system is forecast to weaken into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks east-northeastward across the Florida Peninsula and enters the North Atlantic Ocean early Oct. 10. Milton is then expected to transition into a post-tropical cyclone as it tracks east-northeastward across the North Atlantic Ocean towards Bermuda Oct. 11-12. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Oct. 7 authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

Hurricane Warning

• Celestun to Rio Lagartos, Mexicio

Hurricane Watch

• Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico

• Campeche to south of Celestun, Mexico

• Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay

• Dry Tortugas, Florida

• Lake Okeechobee, Florida

Tropical Storm Warning

• Rio Lagartos to Cancun, Mexico

• Campeche to south of Celestun, Mexico

Tropical Storm Watch

• Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee

• Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass

• Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay

Storm Surge Watch

• Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

Authorities will likely update and extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming hours and days as the storm system develops.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico beginning late Oct. 7 and are possible in the watch areas in Mexico late Oct. 7-8. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Florida Oct. 9.

Rainfall amounts of 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches), with localized totals of up to 38 cm (15 inches), are forecast across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through late Oct. 9. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches), with localized totals up to 15 cm (6 inches), across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1.2-2.4 meters (4-6 feet) above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico in areas of onshore winds. The water could reach around 2.4-3.7 meters (8-12 feet) above ground from the Anclote River to Englewood and Tampa Bay and 0.9-3 meters (3-10 feet) across other parts of the Florida coast. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells from the system are expected to continue to affect much of the whole Gulf Coast over the coming days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Much of the eastern and southeastern US is still recovering following the passage of Hurricane Helene, which made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near Perry in Florida's Big Bend region at around 11:10 EDT Sept. 26. Intense winds and storm surge caused severe damage in the Big Bend region of Florida as the storm crossed the coast, and strong winds, tornadoes, and persistent rainfall continued to cause flooding and damage as the system moved inland. At least 227 fatalities associated with Helene were reported: 113 in North Carolina, 48 in South Carolina, 33 in Georgia, 20 in Florida, 11 in Tennessee, and 2 in Virginia.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 35 counties late Oct. 5 ahead of Milton's approach and expanded the order to include 16 more counties Oct. 6. Mandatory evacuation orders are in place across parts of Charlotte, Lee, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, and Sarasota counties in Florida, including the entire town of Fort Myers Beach; for the latest information concerning evacuations, click HERE. Flights will be suspended at Tampa International Airport (TPA) will be closed from 09:00 Oct. 8; further flight disruptions are likely in affected regions over the coming days. All FEMA Disaster Recovery Centers in Florida will suspend operations after the close of business Oct. 7 in preparation for the severe weather. Some schools across the affected are closed through at least Oct. 10.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria.