Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Storm Milton forecast to rapidly intensify and make landfall as hurricane on Florida's Gulf Coast Oct. 9 after forming Oct. 5

Tropical Storm Milton has formed and is tracking north-northeastward in the Gulf of Mexico on Oct. 5. As of 16:00 CDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 395 km (245 miles) north of Veracruz, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate the system will rapidly intensify over the coming days as it tracks eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Milton will likely make landfall on the Florida Gulf Coast as a major hurricane the afternoon of Oct. 9. Subsequently, the system is forecast to weaken after crossing the Florida Peninsula and entering the North Atlantic Ocean early Oct. 10. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of the evening of Oct. 5, authorities have not yet issued any coastal watches and warnings about the storm but are likely to over the coming hours and days as the storm approaches. Rainfall amounts of 13-20 cm (5-8 inches), with localized totals of up to 30 cm (12 inches), are forecast across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through late Oct. 9. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. Swells from the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Oct. 5 and will likely spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early Oct. 7. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 35 counties Oct. 5 ahead of the storm. Much of the eastern and southeastern US is still recovering following the passage of Hurricane Helene, which made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near Perry in Florida's Big Bend region at around 11:10 EDT Sept. 26. Intense winds and storm surge caused severe damage in the Big Bend region of Florida as the storm crossed the coast, and strong winds, tornadoes, and persistent rainfall continued to cause flooding and damage as the system moved inland. At least 227 fatalities associated with Helene were reported: 113 in North Carolina, 48 in South Carolina, 33 in Georgia, 20 in Florida, 11 in Tennesee, and 2 in Virginia. As of the evening of Oct. 5, more than 132,000 people in Georgia, 131,000 in South Carolina, and 162,000 in North Carolina remain without power. Additional rainfall and strong winds brought by Milton will likely lead to more damage, exacerbating the current situation and hampering recovery efforts.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria.