India: Protests and clashes likely to continue in Assam State in lead-up to Nov. 13 by-elections

Political protests and clashes are likely to continue in Assam State in the lead-up to the Nov. 13 by-elections. The by-elections will occur in Bongaigaon, Behali, Dholai, Samaguri, and Sidli. In recent days, major political parties, including the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Indian National Congress (INC), have staged demonstrations to mobilize grassroots support. On Oct. 15, clashes erupted between BJP and INC campaign workers in Rupahihat, Nagaon District. INC leaders alleged that BJP workers attempted to prevent INC workers from participating in the rally and damaged their motorcycles; for their part, BJP leaders alleged that INC workers damaged BJP signage. In response, the government deployed security personnel and intensified patrols in the affected area.

Political parties and other groups are likely to hold additional demonstrations of varying types, including sit-ins and marches, over the coming days. Protests are likely to occur in the five areas where the by-elections are scheduled to take place, as well as in other urban centers. Potential gathering sites include political party offices, government buildings, public squares, and thoroughfares. Well-attended gatherings could draw thousands of participants.

Officials will likely monitor any such rallies that occur and may use force to disperse overly unruly crowds. Depending on operational needs, the government could implement enhanced restrictions, including temporary curbs on public movement, internet access, and telecommunications. Further clashes between activists and police, as well as between members of opposing groups, are likely. Isolated security incidents, including arson, targeted attacks on candidates, and vandalism, cannot be ruled out. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are also likely.