02 Oct 2024 | 11:38 AM UTC
Israel, Lebanon, Syria: Risk of further conflict escalation increases as cross-border airstrikes continue early October /update 7
Risk of conflict escalation grows as cross-border airstrikes continue; at least 1,073 people killed, 2,955 injured in Lebanon as of Oct. 2.
The risk of a further and significant escalation in the conflict between Israel and the Lebanese Hizballah (LH) has increased as cross-border airstrikes has intensified since Sept. 23. Lebanon's Health Ministry has stated that Israeli airstrikes have killed at least 1,073 people and injured more than 2,955 others in the country since Sept. 23. Several senior LH commanders, including LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, have been killed since Sept. 23. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) also note that their warplanes have struck thousands of LH targets in the airstrikes, destroying rockets, missiles, and drones. On Oct. 1, the IDF stated it launched a "limited ground operation" in southern Lebanon and ordered the evacuation of at least 25 villages in southern Lebanon.
The airstrikes have displaced over 110,000 Lebanese citizens, with many fleeing southern areas of the country and creating traffic jams along major thoroughfares toward Beirut following Israeli warnings to leave locations where the LH had allegedly concealed weaponry. Airstrikes are continuing, with most targeting locations in southern Lebanon, to the south of Sidon, in Baalbek-Hermel Governorate in the east, and parts of Beirut, including the southern suburb of Dahieh. Airstrikes targeting locations in Syria are highly likely; the IDF targeted the Syrian-Lebanese border Sept. 26-27, killing at least five and wounding several others.
The LH, meanwhile, has fired hundreds of rockets toward Israel since Sept. 23, triggering sirens to sound in northern Israel, including near Haifa, in Tel Aviv, and occasionally further south in Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Shi'a militias in Iraq and Syria, as well as Yemen's Al-Houthi, have also targeted Israel with drone attacks on Eilat and Tel Aviv. The rocket barrage caused some damage but no significant casualties. Amid a seemingly rising threat of more frequent and severe cross-border fire from the LH, the Israeli cabinet also declared a "special situation" across the country on Sept. 23, granting officials emergency authorization to impose various restrictions to ensure public safety. On Oct. 1, Israeli authorities issued new directives for Central Israel and Jerusalem, taking effect from 20:00 on Oct. 5 and limiting gatherings to 30 people in open spaces and 300 people in closed spaces.
The IDF will almost certainly continue to carry out airstrikes targeting LH officials, militants, and materiel across Lebanon over the coming days. The IDF will also likely continue its airstrikes against the LH's and other Shi'a militias' positions in Syria, including in the border region with Lebanon, the Golan Heights region, and other sites deeper within Syria. The IDF regularly targets Damascus International Airport (DAM) and Aleppo International Airport (ALP) and has previously caused serious material damage to the runways.
LH militants will almost certainly continue their campaign of cross-border projectile and drone attacks targeting northern and central Israel, prompting sirens to be activated in those regions. Heightened security and disruptions to transport and business operations will probably affect areas subject to cross-border hostilities. While Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport (BEY) remains operational, cross-border tensions and strikes have prompted all foreign airlines to cancel flights to BEY. Additional strikes could lead to further flight disruptions, including in Lebanon and Israel, or even prompt temporary suspensions of flight operations at some regional airports. High demand for outbound flights from BEY cannot be ruled out. Cross-border strikes may also disrupt the functioning of utilities and telecommunications networks in some areas. Authorities in Israel or Lebanon may impose further emergency measures, including movement restrictions or shelter-in-place orders, on short notice in response to conflict developments.
Consider avoiding nonessential travel to Lebanon, Syria, and Israel, particularly the shared border region, until the situation stabilizes. Consider departing Lebanon via commercial means while these are available; note that commercial options to depart Lebanon may become increasingly limited if the security situation deteriorates further. Monitor local media and abide by security forces' directives. If incoming mortar rounds or rockets are reported or warning sirens sound in the general vicinity, report to the nearest bomb shelter and await further instructions from authorities. If there is no shelter nearby, stay indoors and away from windows and exterior walls. If possible, move to a ground floor or basement. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Reconfirm the status of transport services before departure. Review and update contingency plans.
The IDF's air campaign that began on Sept. 23 is the deadliest in Lebanon since it waged war with the LH in 2006. It came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to change the "balance of power" vis-a-vis the Lebanon-based militant group through preemptive strikes on perceived LH targets. Israel seeks to push LH militants back from the Israeli-Lebanese border and degrade the group's ability to launch additional strikes toward Israel so as to permit the return of some 60,000 Israeli citizens displaced from the north of the country by cross-border fighting that erupted after the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel. The LH has asserted that it would continue to conduct attacks targeting Israel until a ceasefire halts the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip.
