07 Oct 2024 | 03:02 PM UTC
Mozambique: General elections planned for Oct. 9 /update 1
Increased security likely throughout Mozambique for general elections on Oct. 9; protests, violence likely following results.
Mozambique will hold general elections to elect its new President, Parliament, and regional governments on Oct. 9. The ruling Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo) campaigned to retain the presidency and its parliamentary majority behind its new leader, Daniel Chapo. They are being challenged by the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo) of Ossufo Momade, the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM) of Lutero Simango, and the independent candidate Venancio Mondlane. Following the campaign's conclusion on Oct. 6, no significant instances of partisan violence were noted. On Sept. 28, the National Electoral Commission (CNE) reported it had been the target of a cyber-attack, the consequences of which remain unclear.
Authorities will likely maintain an increased level of security nationwide ahead of, on the day, and in the days following the election. Measures may include the deployment of checkpoints, increased patrolling near urban centers, border restrictions, and implementation of curfews. Protests and clashes between party supporters, as well as with security forces, are likely. Protests are especially likely in large urban areas, opposition strongholds, and the northern provinces of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, Niassa, and Zambezia. Disruptions to urban and intercity road travel, business operations, and telecommunications are likely amid significant bouts of civil unrest or preemptive security operations.
Exercise caution while operating in Mozambique on Oct. 9 and the following days. Avoid all gatherings, political events, and election-related activities, as well as concentrations of security forces. Avoid displaying overtly red, navy blue, white, or yellow clothes, as these may be associated with rival parties. Exercise caution near police offices and government buildings. If clashes break out, leave the area immediately and take shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Monitor local news for updates on possible curfews or information on road conditions, as protestors may not announce actions in advance. Heed the advice of local authorities. If encountering police checkpoints, do not attempt to bypass security without authorities' permission.
Incumbent President Filipe Nyusi is stepping down having reached the Constitutional term limit. The system is de jure democratic and multipartisan and Frelimo remains the favourite to win. In the last elections in 2023, mostly won by Frelimo, there were allegations of voter fraud and intimidation, ultimately leading to some legal challenges and limited protests.
Election periods can prove disruptive in Mozambique. In the run-up to voting, clashes between opposing supporters and with police have occurred, especially in areas with a large Renamo following. Security resources and training are somewhat limited, which has led to aggressive dispersal tactics when dealing with demonstrations in the past.
