10 Oct 2024 | 12:19 PM UTC
Mozambique: Increased security likely nationwide through late October following general election /update 2
Increased security likely in Mozambique through late October following general election; protests, violence likely following results.
Increased security is likely nationwide through late October following the Oct. 9 general election. Citizens voted to elect their new President, Parliament, and regional governments. Voting proceeded largely peacefully despite reports of ballot box issues and polling stations not opening. Some opposition candidates and observers have already called the process fraudulent. Leaders of the ruling Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo) party have called for the counting process to remain peaceful. Authorities have until Oct. 24 to publish the results; a second round will be held in the event of no presidential candidate receiving an outright majority.
Authorities will likely maintain an increased level of security nationwide ahead of and in the days following the publication of the election results. Measures may include the deployment of checkpoints, increased patrolling near urban centers, border restrictions, and implementation of curfews. Candidates could dispute results or publish their own; protests and clashes between party supporters, as well as with security forces, are likely. Protests are especially likely in large urban areas, opposition strongholds, and the northern provinces of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, Niassa, and Zambezia. Disruptions to urban and intercity road travel, business operations, and telecommunications are likely to occur in the event of bouts of civil unrest or security operations.
Exercise caution while operating in Mozambique through late October. Avoid all gatherings, political events, and election-related activities, as well as concentrations of security forces. Avoid displaying overtly red, navy blue, white, or yellow clothes, as these may be associated with rival parties. Exercise caution near police offices and government buildings. If clashes break out, leave the area immediately and take shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Monitor local news for updates on possible curfews or information on road conditions, as protestors may not announce actions in advance. Heed the advice of local authorities. If encountering police checkpoints, do not attempt to bypass security without authorities' permission.
Incumbent President Filipe Nyusi is stepping down, having reached the Constitutional term limit; his Frelimo party invested in its new leader, Daniel Chapo. They are being challenged by the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo) of Ossufo Momade, the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM) of Lutero Simango, and the independent candidate Venancio Mondlane. The campaign proceeded relatively peacefully. On Sept. 28, the National Electoral Commission (CNE) reported it had been the target of a cyber-attack, the consequences of which remain unclear. Frelimo remains the likely favorite.
Election periods can prove disruptive in Mozambique. The system is de jure, democratic, and multipartisan, though accusations of fraud are common. Clashes between opposing supporters and police typically occur during election periods, especially in areas with a large Renamo following. Security resources and training are somewhat limited, which has led to aggressive dispersal tactics when dealing with demonstrations in the past. In the last elections in 2023, which were mostly won by Frelimo, there were allegations of voter fraud and intimidation, ultimately leading to some legal challenges and limited protests.
