21 Oct 2024 | 07:31 AM UTC
Mozambique: Increased security likely nationwide through late October following general election /update 3
Increased security, likely in Mozambique through late October following general election. Opposition calls for strike, protests Oct. 21.
Increased security is likely nationwide through late October following the Oct. 9 general election. While the process remained largely peaceful, the National Electoral Commission (CNE) has yet to confirm preliminary results, and some opposition candidates and observers have already called the process fraudulent. Authorities have until Oct. 24 to publish the results; a second round will occur if no presidential candidate receives an outright majority.
The Optimistic People for the Development of Mozambique (Podemos) party has called for a nationwide strike and protests Oct. 21 following the recent killing of two of its high-ranking members. Podemos alleges the attacks were politically motivated. Organizers plan to lead a protest march in Maputo along Avenida Joaquim Chissano, where the victims were shot, from 09:30. Thousands could participate in the action.
Additional protests are likely nationwide, especially in large urban areas in Maputo, Nampula, and Beira, as well as the northern provinces of Cabo Delgado, Niassa, and Zambezia. Demonstrations could draw thousands of participants. Increased police presence is likely, particularly near protest locations. Measures may include the deployment of checkpoints, increased patrolling near urban centers, border restrictions, and implementation of curfews. Gatherings could also materialize in the coming days as candidates may dispute results or publish their own. Disruptions to urban and intercity road travel, business operations, and telecommunications will likely occur during bouts of civil unrest or security operations. Some foreign diplomatic missions have also warned of potential rallies and disruptions and advised their citizens to minimize unnecessary movements.
Exercise caution while operating in Mozambique through late October. Avoid all gatherings, political events, and election-related activities, as well as concentrations of security forces. Avoid displaying overtly navy blue, white, or yellow clothes, as these may be associated with rival parties. Exercise caution near police offices and government buildings. If clashes break out, leave the area immediately and take shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Reconfirm appointments and plan for increased employee absenteeism during strike actions. Monitor local news for updates on possible curfews or information on road conditions, as protestors may not announce actions in advance. Heed the advice of local authorities. If encountering police checkpoints, do not attempt to bypass security without authorities' permission.
Citizens voted to elect their new President, Parliament, and regional governments. Incumbent President Filipe Nyusi is stepping down, having reached the Constitutional term limit; his Frelimo party invested in its new leader, Daniel Chapo. They face challenges from the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo) of Ossufo Momade, the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM) of Lutero Simango, and Venancio Mondlane (Podemos). Preliminary results give Frelimo a large victory, with Podemos coming second. The campaign and election proceeded relatively peacefully despite reports of ballot box issues and polling stations not opening.
Election periods can prove disruptive in Mozambique. The system is de jure, democratic, and multipartisan, though accusations of fraud are common. Clashes between opposing supporters and police typically occur during election periods, especially in areas with a large Renamo following. Security resources and training are somewhat limited, which has led to aggressive dispersal tactics when dealing with demonstrations in the past. In the last elections in 2023, mostly won by Frelimo, there were allegations of voter fraud and intimidation, ultimately leading to legal challenges and limited protests.
