North Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Oscar makes landfall over eastern Cuba as of late Oct. 20 /update 2

Hurricane Oscar is tracking westward across Guantanamo Province in Cuba following landfall as of late Oct. 20. As of 20:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 75 km (45 miles) east of Guantanamo.

Forecast models indicate that the system will gradually weaken into a tropical storm as it turns to track northward over eastern Holguin Province through the afternoon of Oct. 21. Oscar will likely exit into the North Atlantic Ocean from northeastern Holguin Province before turning to track northeastward to cross the Bahamas, making a close approach to Long Island the afternoon of Oct. 22. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Oct. 20, officials had issued the following warnings and watches in connection with Hurricane Oscar:

• Hurricane Warning: North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi.

• Hurricane Watch: North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas.

• Tropical Storm Warning: Southeastern Bahamas; south coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo; north coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas.

• Tropical Storm Watch: North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey; central Bahamas.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Officials have cautioned that hurricane conditions will continue across portions of the warning area and possibly in the watch area of Cuba through early Oct. 21. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area and potentially in the watch area of Cuba through the morning of Oct. 21, and probable in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and possibly in the watch areas of the central Bahamas Oct. 21-22.

Oscar is forecast to bring rainfall totals of 15-30 cm (6-12 inches) with localized higher rainfall amounts of 46 cm (18 inches) across eastern Cuba and 8-13 cm (3-5 inches) with localized higher rainfall amounts of 20 cm (8 inches) over the southeastern Bahamas through early Oct. 23. An additional 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of rain is forecast over the Turks and Caicos Islands through the morning of Oct. 23. The system will also likely bring a dangerous storm surge that will probably produce significant coastal flooding along the northern shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds, where water levels are forecast to be 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) above normal tide levels. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.