North Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Oscar tracks westward toward Turks and Caicos Islands as of early Oct. 20 /update 1

Hurricane Oscar is tracking westward across Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas early Oct. 20, following landfall on the eastern side of the island in recent hours. As of 05:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 240 km (150 miles) east-northeast of Guantanamo, Cuba.

Forecast models indicate that the system will maintain its strength, turn to track southwestward, and make another landfall over Cuba's Guantanamo Province the evening of Oct. 20. After landfall, the system is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks west-southwestward along the border between Holguin and Guantanamo provinces through early Oct. 21 before turning to track west-northwestward across far northeastern Santiago de Cuba then western Holguin provinces through the afternoon of Oct. 21. Oscar is likely to turn to track northward and exit into Atlantic Ocean from northwestern Holguin Province before turning to track north-northeastward and make a close approach to Ragged Island, Bahamas early Oct. 22. The storm is forecast to continue northeastward and make another landfall over Long Island, Bahamas the evening of Oct. 22 before making another close approach to San Salvador Island late Oct. 22. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Oct. 20, officials had issued the following warnings and watches in connection with Hurricane Oscar:

• Hurricane Warning: Southeastern Bahamas; north coast of the Cuban provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi.

• Hurricane Watch: North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas.

• Tropical Storm Warning: Turks and Caicos Islands; south coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo; north coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas.

• Tropical Storm Watch: North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Officials have cautioned that hurricane conditions will continue across portions of the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas, particularly Great Inagua Island, through the morning of Oct. 20 and are expected in the warning area in Cuba the late afternoon and evening of Oct. 20. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba the afternoon of Oct. 20-21 and will diminish across the Turks and Caicos Islands through the morning of Oct. 20.

Oscar is forecast to bring rainfall totals of 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches) with localized higher rainfall amounts of 38 cm (15 inches) across eastern Cuba and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) with localized higher rainfall amounts of 15 cm (6 inches), to the southeastern Bahamas through Oct. 22. The system will also likely bring a dangerous storm surge that will probably produce significant coastal flooding on Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas, where water levels are forecast to be 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) above normal tide levels. Water levels of 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) above normal tide levels are likely along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely accompany the storm surge.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.