North Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm Oscar tracking northeastward toward the Bahamas as of late Oct. 21 /update 4

Tropical Storm Oscar has exited Holguin Province in eastern Cuba and is tracking northeastward toward the Bahamas late Oct. 21. As of 20:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 225 km (140 miles) south-southwest of Long Island, Bahamas.

Forecast models indicate that the system will intensify slightly, though largely maintaining as a tropical storm as it crosses the Bahamas with a close approach to northwestern Crooked Island Oct. 22. Oscar is then forecast to continue further northeastward into the North Atlantic Ocean through at least Oct. 24. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Oct. 21, officials had issued the following warnings in connection with Oscar:

• Tropical Storm Warning: North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi; south coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo; central Bahamas; southeastern Bahamas

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning areas in eastern Cuba through at least Oct. 21 and in the central and southeastern Bahamas through at least Oct. 22.

Oscar is forecast to bring rainfall totals of 18-36 cm (7-14 inches) with localized higher amounts up to 51 cm (20 inches) through Oct. 23 across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will likely lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Rainfall totals of 8-13 cm (3-5 inches) with localized higher rainfall amounts of 20 cm (8 inches) are forecast over the southeastern Bahamas. Elevated water levels in areas of onshore flow along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside through early Oct. 22, with large and destructive waves still possible over the coming hours.

The Cuban government suspended nonessential administrative and educational activities nationwide due to the storm system and ongoing widespread power supply issues affecting the country in recent days. While authorities have partially restored electricity as of late Oct. 21, adverse weather associated with Oscar will likely exacerbate the situation in the coming days due to possible damage to power lines and other infrastructure. Reports indicate some damage to buildings in and around Baracoa in Guantanamo Province, with some residents evacuating as a precaution.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.