21 Oct 2024 | 08:37 AM UTC
Philippine Sea: Tropical Depression 22W tracking west-southwestward in the Philippine Sea Oct. 21
TD 22W tracking west-southwestward in the Philippine Sea Oct. 21. Landfall forecast over Cagayan Valley Region, Philippines, late Oct. 23.
Tropical Depression 22W (named Kristine in the Philippines) is tracking west-southwestward over the Philippine Sea Oct. 21. As of 14:00 PHST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 991 km (616 miles) east of Manila, Philippines.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a tropical storm before turning to track northwestward early Oct. 22 off the eastern coast of the Philippines. The system will continue to strengthen slightly before turning to track west-northwestward Oct. 23 and making landfall over Cagayan Valley Region late Oct. 23. After making landfall, the system is expected to weaken slightly as it tracks west-northwestward across Luzon Island late Oct. 23-early Oct. 24, before exiting into the South China Sea during the afternoon Oct. 24. The storm is expected to strengthen slightly as it tracks west-northwestward across the South China Sea towards China's Hainan Island Oct. 25-26. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of Oct. 21, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds to northern and central regions and rough seas to eastern coastal waters. A Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 1 (the lowest level on a five-tier scale) is in place for Catanduanes, Masbate including Ticao Island and Burias Island, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Camarines Norte, and eastern Quezon provinces in Luzon, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Biliran, and Southern Leyte provinces in Visayas, and Dinagat Islands and Surigao del Norte provinces in Mindanao. A separate weather advisory has also been issued for heavy rainfall associated with the storm system across northern regions. Rainfall totals of over 20 cm (8 inches) are expected in Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur provinces Oct. 22-23 and 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) in Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Northern Samar provinces Oct. 21-22, the rest of Bicol Region, Northern Samar, and Eastern Samar Oct. 22-23, and Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and Quezon Oct. 23-24. Rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are expected across other parts of the eastern and northern Philippines over the coming days. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days as the system progresses.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
