Philippine Sea: Tropical Storm Trami tracking northwestward in the Philippine Sea Oct. 22 /update 1

Tropical Storm Trami (named Kristine in the Philippines) is tracking northwestward over the Philippine Sea Oct. 22. As of 14:00 PHST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 607 km (377 miles) east of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen slightly as it tracks northwestward off the east coast of the Philippines Oct. 22-23 before making landfall over Cagayan Valley Region late Oct. 23. After making landfall, the system is expected to weaken slightly as it tracks westward across Luzon Island early Oct. 24, before exiting into the South China Sea during the late morning or early afternoon Oct. 24. The storm is expected to strengthen but remain a tropical storm as it tracks west-northwestward then westward across the South China Sea towards central Vietnam Oct. 25-27. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Oct. 22, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds to northern and central regions and rough seas to eastern coastal waters. A Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 2 (the second lowest level on a five-tier scale) is in place for Catanduanes Province and a TCWS 1 across the rest of Luzon, as well as Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Biliran, and Southern Leyte provinces in Visayas and Dinagat Islands and Surigao del Norte provinces in Mindanao. A separate weather advisory has also been issued for heavy rainfall associated with the storm system across central, eastern, and northern regions. Rainfall totals of over 20 cm (8 inches) are expected in Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, and Northern Samar provinces Oct. 22-23 and Isabela, Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte provinces Oct. 23-24. Rainfall totals of 5-20 cm (2-8 inches) are expected across other parts of the central, eastern, and northern Philippines Oct. 22-25. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days as the system progresses.

Officials have closed schools across many parts of the eastern and northern Philippines due to adverse weather associated with the approach of the storm and work has been suspended in government offices in several provinces, including Albay, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. Ferry services have been suspended at many ports across the eastern and northern Philippines, and nearly 3,000 people are stranded at ports across the country as of Oct. 22. Authorities in Albay Province have ordered the evacuation from all areas prone to flooding, landslides, and lahars around Mayon Volcano. Heavy rainfall associated with the storm system has caused several roads in the area to be made impassable due to floodwaters and debris.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.