Philippine Sea: Typhoon Kong-rey tracking northwestward east of the Phillippines as of early Oct. 29 /update 3

Typhoon Kong-rey (known in the Philippines as Leon) is tracking northwestward across the Philippine Sea east of the Philippines early Oct. 29. As of 05:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 793 km (493 miles) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will strengthen further as it tracks northwestward and makes landfall over far northeastern Taitung County, Taiwan, the afternoon of Oct. 31. The storm is likely to weaken as it turns to track northwestward across Taiwan and exits into the Taiwan Strait late Oct. 31. Kong-rey is likely to weaken into a tropical storm as it turns to track north-northeastward just off the coast of Fujian then Zhejiang provinceacs in China and enters the East China Sea late Nov. 1 before turning to track northeastward towards Kyushu, Japan through Nov. 2. The system is forecast to make another landfall over Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan late Nov. 2 before tracking northeastward across Miyazaki Prefecture and exiting back into the Phillippine Sea early Nov. 3. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Oct. 29, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds to northern and central regions and rough seas to coastal waters. A Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 1 (the lowest level on a five-tier scale) is in place for Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Aurora, the northern Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, eastern Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, eastern Albay, and northeastern Sorsogon in Luzon and eastern Northern Samar and northern Eastern Samar in the Visayas. Authorities have suspended some classes in parts of Luzon and Central Visayas Region Oct. 29.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.