Philippines: Tropical Storm Trami tracking northwestward across northern Luzon Island early Oct. 24 /update 4

Tropical Storm Trami (named Kristine in the Philippines) is tracking northwestward across northern Luzon in the Philippines early Oct. 24 following landfall in Divilacan Town, Isabela Province, around 00:30. As of 05:00 PHST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 337 km (209 miles) north-northeast of Manila.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken slightly but remain a tropical storm as it tracks westward across northern Luzon before exiting into the South China Sea the afternoon of Oct. 24. The storm is then expected to initially strengthen but maintain tropical storm strength as it tracks generally westward across the South China Sea through early Oct. 27, before weakening slightly as it moves west-southwestwards towards central Vietnam through early Oct. 29, passing north of the Paracel Islands Oct. 27. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Oct. 24, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds to northern and central regions and rough seas to eastern coastal waters. There is a moderate to high risk of storm surge of 2.1-3 meters (7-10 feet) across Aurora, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, and Isabela provinces and 1-2 meters (3-6 feet) across most of the rest of northern and central Luzon. PAGASA has issued the following warnings:

• Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 3 (the middle level on a five-tier scale): Southern Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, the southern Abra, Benguet, northern and central Aurora, northern Nueva Ecija, northern Tarlac, northern Zambales, Pangasinan, La Union, and central and southern Ilocos Sur

• TCWS 2: Ilocos Norte, the rest of Ilocos Sur, Apayao, the rest of Abra, the rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the rest of Aurora, the rest of Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, the rest of Tarlac, Pampanga, the rest of Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Batangas, northern and central Quezon including Polillo Islands, and Lubang Island

• TCWS 1: The rest of Luzon and Aklan, Capiz, Antique including Caluya Islands, Iloilo, Guimaras, northern Negros Occidental, northern Cebu including Bantayan Islands, Northern Samar, Samar, Biliran, northern Eastern Samar, and northern Leyte in the Visayas

A separate weather advisory has also been issued for heavy rainfall associated with the storm system across central, eastern, and northern regions. Rainfall totals of over 20 cm (8 inches) are expected in Pangasinan, Zambales, La Union, Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Apayao, Mountain Province, Kalinga, Ifugao, and Aurora provinces Oct. 24. Rainfall totals of 5-20 cm (2-8 inches) are expected across other parts of the central, eastern, and northern Philippines through Oct. 25. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days as the system progresses.

Flooding and strong winds are causing damage, flooding, and other associated disruptions across parts of the Philippines as of early Oct. 24, with areas of Bicol Region the worst affected. Albay Province, Magpet Town in Cotabato Province, Bulan Town in Sorsogon Province, and Tagkawayan Town in Quezon Province have declared states of calamity. Authorities have reported 11 fatalities in Naga City in Camarines Sur Province, one fatality in Masbate Province, and two in Quezon Province. At least 11 others are missing across the affected areas. As of early Oct. 24, the severe weather has affected more than one million people across Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, Bicol, Calabarzon, Caraga, Eastern Visayas, Mimaropa, Western Visayas, and Zamboanga Peninsula regions, with more than 54,000 people displaced. More than 130 homes have been damaged or destroyed and emergency services have carried out dozens of rescue operations to evacuate people caught in floods. Hundreds of roads have been made impassable across affected areas due to floodwaters and landslides. Power outages have been reported across parts of Bicol, Eastern Visayas, and Zamboanga Peninsula regions.

Flights have been suspended at Bicol International Airport (DRP) in Albay Province, Masbate Airport (MBT) in Masbate Province, Calbayog Airport (CYP) in Calbayog City in Samar Province, and Catarman National Airport (CRM) in Northern Samar Province due to the severe weather. Several domestic flights connecting Manila with Bacolod, Basco, Butuan, Cauayan, Cagayan De Oro, Caticlan, Cebu, Davao, Dipolog, Dumaguete, General Santos, Iloilo, Laoag, Legazpi, Masbate, Naga, Ozamiz, Pagadian, Puerto Princesa, Roxas, San Jose, Tacloban, Tuguegarao, Virac, and Zamboanga Oct. 24 have been canceled. Ferry services have been suspended at many ports across the eastern and northern Philippines, and more than 5,000 people are stranded at ports across the country as of early Oct. 24. Officials have closed schools across many parts of the eastern and northern Philippines due to adverse weather associated with the approach of the storm and work has been suspended in government offices in several provinces, including Albay, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.