Philippines: Tropical Storm Trami tracking northwestward towards Luzon Island Oct. 23 /update 3

Tropical Storm Trami (named Kristine in the Philippines) is tracking northwestward in the western Philippine Sea towards Luzon Island in the Philippines Oct. 23. As of 17:00 PHST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 304 km (189 miles) northeast of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will make landfall close to the border between Aurora and Isabela provinces late Oct. 23. After making landfall, the system is expected to weaken slightly but remain a tropical storm as it tracks west-northwestward then west-southwestward across Luzon late Oct. 23-early Oct. 24, before exiting into the South China Sea around noon Oct. 24. The storm is expected to initially strengthen but remain a tropical storm as it tracks west-northwestward then westward across the South China Sea Oct. 24-26, before weakening slightly as it tracks west-southwestwards towards central Vietnam Oct. 26-28. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Oct. 23, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds to northern and central regions and rough seas to eastern coastal waters. A Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 2 (the second lowest level on a five-tier scale) is in place for Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Cagayan including the Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Quezon including the Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, and northeastern Sorsogon provinces. A TCWS 1 has been issued across the rest of Luzon and most of the rest of the Visayas, as well as Dinagat Islands and Surigao del Norte Province including the Siargao-Bucas Grande Group in Mandanao.

A separate weather advisory has also been issued for heavy rainfall associated with the storm system across central, eastern, and northern regions. Rainfall totals of over 20 cm (8 inches) are expected in Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Aurora, Quezon, and Camarines Norte provinces Oct. 23 and Pangasinan, Zambales, and La Union provinces Oct. 24. Rainfall totals of 5-20 cm (2-8 inches) are expected across other parts of the central, eastern, and northern Philippines Oct. 23-25. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days as the system progresses.

Flooding and strong winds are causing damage, flooding, and other associated disruptions across parts of the Philippines as of Oct. 23, with areas of Bicol Region the worst affected. Albay Province and Magpet town in Cotabato Province have declared states of calamity. Authorities have reported one fatality in Masbate Province and two in Quezon Province. At least 11 others are missing across the affected areas. As of Oct. 23, the severe weather has affected more than 380,000 people across Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Western Visayas, and Zamboanga Peninsula regions, with more than 12,6000 people displaced. More than 50 homes have been damaged or destroyed and emergency services have carried out dozens of rescue operations to evacuate people caught in floods. Hundreds of roads have been made impassable across affected areas due to floodwaters and landslides. Power outages have been reported across parts of Bicol, Eastern Visayas, and Zamboanga Peninsula regions.

Flights have been suspended at Bicol International Airport (DRP) in Albay Province, Masbate Airport (MBT) in Masbate Province, Calbayog Airport (CYP) in Calbayog City in Samar Province, and Catarman National Airport (CRM) in Northern Samar Province due to the severe weather. Several domestic flights connecting Manila with Basco, Clark, Naga, Masbate, Cauayan, Tuguegarao, and Virac Oct. 23 and Cauayan, Laoag, and Tuguegarao Oct. 24 have been canceled. Ferry services have been suspended at many ports across the eastern and northern Philippines, and more than 4,750 people are stranded at ports across the country as of early Oct. 23. Officials have closed schools across many parts of the eastern and northern Philippines due to adverse weather associated with the approach of the storm and work has been suspended in government offices in several provinces, including Albay, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.