South China Sea: Tropical Storm Trami exits the Philippines into the South China Sea Oct. 24 /update 5

Tropical Storm Trami (named Kristine in the Philippines) is tracking west-northwestward and has moved into the South China Sea Oct. 24 after tracking across Luzon in the Philippines following landfall in Divilacan Town, Isabela Province, around 00:30 Oct. 24. As of 17:00 PHST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 333 km (207 miles) north-northwest of Manila.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen slightly as it tracks generally westward across the South China Sea towards central Vietnam through early Oct. 27. Trami is then expected to weaken as it turns southwestward Oct. 27-28. As it approaches central Vietnam, it is forecast to turn away to track east-southeastwards back out into the South China Sea Oct. 28-29. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Oct. 24, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather bulletin advising that the system will continue to bring strong winds to northern and central regions and rough seas to coastal waters. There is a continued risk of storm surge of around 1-2 meters (3-6 feet) across low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and Zambales provinces Oct. 24-25. PAGASA has issued the following warnings:

• Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 3 (the middle level on a five-tier scale): Benguet, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and Pangasinan

• TCWS 2: Ilocos Norte, Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Cavite, western Batangas, northern Quezon including Polillo Islands, and Lubang Islands

• TCWS 1: The rest of Luzon and Aklan, Capiz, Antique including Caluya Islands, Iloilo, Bantayan Islands, Northern Samar, and northern Samar in the Visayas

A separate weather advisory has also been issued for heavy rainfall associated with the storm system across central, eastern, and northern regions. Rainfall totals of over 20 cm (8 inches) are expected in Pangasinan, Zambales, La Union, and Occidental Mindoro provinces Oct. 24. Rainfall totals of 5-20 cm (2-8 inches) are expected across other parts of the central and northern Philippines through Oct. 25. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days as the system progresses.

Flooding and strong winds are causing damage, flooding, and other associated disruptions across parts of the Philippines as of Oct. 24. Albay Province, Magpet Town in Cotabato Province, Bulan Town in Sorsogon Province, and Tagkawayan Town in Quezon Province have declared states of calamity. Authorities have reported 16 fatalities across parts of Bicol Region and two in Quezon Province, Calabarzon Region. At least eight others are missing across the affected areas. As of early Oct. 24, the severe weather has affected more than two million people across 12 regions of the Philippines, with Bicol Region the worst affected. More than 195,000 people have been displaced and more than 1,000 homes have been damaged or destroyed. Emergency services have carried out dozens of rescue operations to evacuate people caught in floods. Hundreds of roads and dozens of bridges have been made impassable across affected areas due to floodwaters and landslides. Power outages have been reported in dozens of municipalities across the affected areas, with around 400,00 people affected in Metro Manila and surrounding areas. Water supply disruptions and communication outages are ongoing in some areas.

Flights have been suspended at Bicol International Airport (DRP) in Albay Province, Masbate Airport (MBT) in Masbate Province, Calbayog Airport (CYP) in Calbayog City in Samar Province, and Catarman National Airport (CRM) in Northern Samar Province due to the severe weather. Several domestic flights connecting Manila with Bacolod, Basco, Butuan, Cauayan, Cagayan De Oro, Caticlan, Cebu, Davao, Dipolog, Dumaguete, General Santos, Iloilo, Laoag, Legazpi, Masbate, Naga, Ozamiz, Pagadian, Puerto Princesa, Roxas, San Jose, Tacloban, Tuguegarao, Virac, and Zamboanga Oct. 24 have been canceled. Ferry services have been suspended at many ports across the eastern and northern Philippines, and nearly 9,000 people are stranded at ports across the country as of early Oct. 24. Officials have closed schools across many parts of the eastern and northern Philippines due to adverse weather associated with the approach of the storm and work has been suspended in government offices in several provinces, including Albay, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.