South China Sea: Tropical Storm Trami tracking west-northwestward in the South China Sea away from the Philippines Oct. 25 /update 6

Tropical Storm Trami (named Kristine in the Philippines) is tracking west-northwestward in the South China Sea Oct. 25 away from the Philippines after making landfall in Divilacan Town, Isabela Province around 00:30 Oct. 24 and tracking across Luzon. As of 17:00 PHST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 594 km (369 miles) south-southeast of Hong Kong, China.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen slightly as it tracks generally westward across the South China Sea Oct. 25-26. Trami is then expected to weaken as it approaches central Vietnam Oct. 27 and before it reaches land it is forecast to perform a u-turn, turning to track southwestward, southward, and then eastward whilst weakening to a tropical depression through Oct. 29. The system is expected to weaken further and dissipate as it tracks eastward back out into the South China Sea Oct. 30. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Oct. 25, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a cyclone bulletin advising that the system will continue to bring strong winds to northern and central regions and rough seas to coastal waters. There is a continued risk of storm surge of around 1-2 meters (3-6 feet) across low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, and Zambales provinces Oct. 25-26. PAGASA is maintaining the following warnings as of Oct. 25:

• Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 2 (the second lowest level on a five-tier scale): Northwestern mainland Cagayan, the Babuyan Islands, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, Zambales, and northern Bataan in Luzon

• TCWS 1: Batanes, the rest of mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Aurora, Bulacan, the rest of Bataan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Rizal, Quezon, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, and northern Palawan in Luzon and northern Aklan and northern Antique including Caluya Islands in the Visayas

A separate weather advisory has also been issued for heavy rainfall associated with the storm system; rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are forecast across Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet, Tarlac, Pampanga, Zambales, Bataan, Palawan, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, southern Negros Oriental, and Zamboanga Peninsula Oct. 25. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days as the system progresses.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued a yellow typhoon warning for Trami, warning of strong winds and heavy rainfall over southern coastal areas over the coming days. Vietnam's National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) has issued a warning for the storm advising of rough seas in coastal areas and heavy rainfall across many parts of the country; rainfall totals of 30-50 cm (12 -20 inches) with localized heavier amounts over 70 cm (28 inches) are possible between Quang Tri and Quang Ngai provinces Oct. 26-28 and 10-20 cm (4-8 onches) with localized heavier amounts over 30 cm (12 inches) expected in other parts of central and northern Vietnam.

Flooding and strong winds are causing damage, flooding, and other associated disruptions across parts of the Philippines as of Oct. 25. States of Calamity have been declared across Cavite Province and parts of Albay, Cotobato, Eastern Samar, Quezon, and Sorsogon provinces. Authorities have reported at least 40 fatalities across affected areas, with at least 20 of the fatalities occurring in Bicol Region. As of early Oct. 25, the severe weather has affected more than 2,650,000 people across 16 regions of the Philippines, with Bicol Region the worst affected. Around 320,00 people have been displaced and more than 1,400 homes have been damaged or destroyed. Emergency services have carried out hundreds of rescue operations to evacuate people caught in floods. Hundreds of roads and dozens of bridges have been made impassable across affected areas due to floodwaters and landslides. Power outages have been reported in dozens of municipalities across the affected areas and water supply disruptions and communication outages are ongoing in some areas.

Hundreds of flights have been canceled and some airports closed across affected areas Oct. 23-25; airports are expected to largely begin to resume normal operations over the coming hours and days now that the storm has passed, but lingering disruptions are possible as airlines work to clear the backlog of passengers. Ferry services have been suspended at many ports across the Philippines and around 7,500 people remain stranded at ports across the country as of early Oct. 25. Officials have closed schools and work has been suspended in government offices across hundreds of municipalities due to the impact of the severe weather.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.