Caribbean Sea: Hurricane Rafael tracking northwestward toward western Cuba as of early Nov. 6 /update 5

Hurricane Rafael is tracking northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea toward western Cuba early Nov. 6, having passed close to the west of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands as a strong tropical storm late Nov. 5. As of 07:00 EST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 90 km (140 miles) east-southeast of the Isle of Youth, Cuba.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane as it continues to track northwestward and passes close to the east of the Isle of Youth in Cuba during the morning Nov. 6. The storm could reach Category 3 hurricane strength before making landfall over far southeastern Artemisa Province close to the border with Pinar del Rio Province in western Cuba during the afternoon Nov. 6. The system is forecast to weaken slightly after landfall but maintain Category 2 hurricane strength as it exits western Cuba and tracks northwestward and then west-northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico through early Nov. 8. Rafael is then forecast to weaken into a Category 1 hurricane and then into a tropical storm as it tracks west-northwestward then northwestward across the central Gulf of Mexico Nov. 8-11.

As of early Nov. 6, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Little Cayman and Grand Brac in the Cayman Islands and Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth provinces in Cuba

• Tropical Storm Warning: Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila provinces in Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge as well as Dry Tortugas in Florida

Authorities will likely update and extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming hours and days as the storm approaches.

Hurricane conditions are likely to continue in parts of the Cayman Islands over the coming hours and are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth Nov. 6. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys Nov. 6. Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in central Cuba Nov. 6.

Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Nov. 7. Rainfall totals of 10-17.5 cm (4-7 inches) are forecast over the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, with locally heavier totals of up to 25 cm (10 inches) possible over higher terrain. Flash flooding and landslides are possible. Rainfall totals of 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) are expected for the lower and middle Florida Keys. A few tornadoes are possible over the Keys and far southwestern mainland Florida Nov. 6.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands and 2.7-4.0 meters (9-13 feet) in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth, Nov. 6. The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause flooding in normally dry areas near the coast from rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach 0.3-0.9 m (1-3 feet) above ground in the Dry Tortugas and 0.3-0.6 m (1-2 feet) in the lower Florida Keys if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. Swells generated by the system will continue to affect much of the western Caribbean over the coming days and will spread east to west across the Gulf of Mexico coast through Nov. 9. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Aviation authorities in the Cayman Islands have announced that Owen Roberts International Airport (GCM) on Grand Cayman will resume operations at 09:00 Nov. 6 and Sir Captain Charles Kirkconnell International Airport (CYB) on Cayman Brac at 12:00 Nov. 6 having been closed due to Rafael. Schools, banks, courts, and most public sector offices were closed in the Cayman Islands Nov. 5 until further notice. Authorities have advised that comprehensive damage assessments will be carried out in the Cayman Islands as weather conditions begin to improve through Nov. 6.

Much of Cuba is still recovering from the collapse of the power grid Oct. 18 and the passage of Hurricane Oscar, which made landfall near Baracoa in Guantanamo Province at around 18:10 Oct. 20. Authorities in Cuba have already evacuated more than 66,000 people in Guantanamo Province in far eastern Cuba, ahead of predicted heavy rainfall and flooding. Plans are underway to evacuate thousands of residents in Pinar del Rio Province. Sunwing evacuated all Sunwing customers in Cayo Largo del Sur the afternoon of Nov. 5.

The Cuban Aviation Corporation has suspended airport operations across western Cuba, including Rafael Cabrera Mustelier (GER), Vilo Acuna International (CYO), Jose Marti International (HAV), and Juan Gualberto Gomez International (VRA) airports Nov. 6-7. Maritime traffic between the ports of Batabano and Nueva Gerona, and boat services in Havana Bay are also canceled. Officials suspended buses connecting Baracoa and Maisi, all bus operations to and from Havana, and interprovincial routes from Sancti Spiritus to Artemisa. Train 11 from Havana to Santiago de Cuba Nov. 5 and Train 15 from Havana to Holguin Nov. 6 are canceled. Authorities have also suspended Train 18 from Manzanillo-Bayamo to Havana Nov. 5 and Train 14 from Guantanamo to Havana Nov. 6 until weather and safety conditions improve. Cancellation of interprovincial train services in the western region, from Matanzas to Pinar del Rio, is in effect from midnight Nov. 4. Schools are closed across much of western Cuba since Nov. 5. Oil companies have begun evacuating nonessential personnel from oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.