East China Sea: Tropical Storm Kong-rey tracking northeastward across the East China Sea early Nov. 2 /update 10

Tropical Storm Kong-rey is tracking northeastward across the East China Sea early Nov. 2, having skirted along the coast of China's Zhejiang Province Nov. 1 and passed over Taiwan as a typhoon Oct. 31. As of 06:00, the system's center of circulation was approximately 352 km (219 miles) west-southwest of Sasebo, Japan.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will make another landfall over southern Nagasaki Prefecture on Japan's Kyushu Island during the late morning Nov. 2. Kong-rey is expected to maintain its strength and transition into a post-tropical cyclone with tropical storm strength winds as it tracks east-northeastward across Kyushu Island and makes another landfall over Ehime Prefecture on Shikoku Island during the afternoon Nov. 2. The post-tropical system is forecast to track east-northeastward across Shikoku and into Wakayama Bay before making landfall over Osaka Prefecture and moving across the Kii Peninsula on Honshu Island during the early evening Nov. 2. The system will continue to slowly weaken but remain a tropical storm as it tracks east-northeastward along the southern coast of Honshu through late Nov. 2, making landfall over Aichi, Shizuoka, and Chiba prefectures, before tracking away from Japan through early Nov. 3. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Warnings

As of early Nov. 2, the China Meteorological Administration maintains a yellow landslide warning for parts of eastern Zhejiang and northeastern Fujian provinces.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued a weather bulletin warning of heavy rainfall across parts of western Japan Nov. 2 and eastern Japan Nov. 3 as Kong-rey transitions into a post-tropical cyclone and moves across the country. Thunderstorms, strong winds, lightning, and tornadoes may accompany downpours.

Rainfall totals of around 20 cm (8 inches) are forecast across Shikoku, 18 cm (7 inches) in Tokai, and 12 cm (5 inches) across most of the rest of eastern and western Japan Nov. 2-early Nov. 3. Purple (highest level on a three-tier scale) landslide warnings are in place for northern Fukuoka, southern Hiroshima, northern Saga, and Shimane prefectures. Red heavy rain, landslide, flood, and storm warnings have been issued for the rest of Fukuoka, the rest of Hiroshima, Kyoto, Nagasaki, northern and northwestern Oita, Okayama, Osaka, the rest of Saga, western and central Tottori, and Yamaguchi prefectures. Yellow advisories are in effect for most of the rest of western and eastern Japan. Further warnings will likely be issued, and some warnings may be upgraded as the storm system moves closer to land over the coming hours.

Ongoing Disruptions and Evacuations

In China, officials in Zhejiang Province have evacuated more than 280,000 people ahead of the storm's approach, with more than 10,000 evacuation centers opened across the province. Ferry operators have suspended services for multiple routes in Fujian and Zhejiang.

In Japan, purple evacuation orders (the second highest evacuation level on a five-tier scale) are in place for parts of Fukuoka, Hiroshima, Ishikawa, Nagasaki, Shimane, and Yamaguchi prefectures due to heavy rainfall forecast associated with Kong-rey. Red evacuation orders for the elderly and other vulnerable groups are in place for parts of Saga Prefecture. Rail operators temporarily suspended the Sanyo Shinkansen service between Hiroshima and Hakata stations due to heavy rain; services have since resumed. Some trains on the Kyushu Shinkansen were delayed due to disruptions on the Sanyo Shinkansen. Disruptions are ongoing on some local trains across the affected area.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.