Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane Rafael tracking west-northwestward away from Cuba as of late Nov. 7 /update 7

Hurricane Rafael is tracking west-northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico away from Cuba late Nov. 7, following landfall just east of Playa Majana in Artemisa Province, Cuba, around 16:15 Nov. 6. As of 15:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 520 km (325 miles) northeast of Progreso, Mexico. Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks westward across the central Gulf of Mexico through Nov. 10 before making a sharp turn to track south-southwestward towards Veracruz State, Mexico, through Nov. 12.

As of late Nov. 7, authorities have rescinded all watches and warnings in relation to the storm. Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico over the coming days. The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Authorities will likely update and extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming days as the storm approaches.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.