Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Storm Rafael tracking north-northwestward, north-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, as of late Nov. 9 /update 8

Tropical Storm Rafael is tracking north-northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico late Nov. 9. As of 21:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 530 km (330 miles) north-northwest of Progreso, Mexico. Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken into a tropical depression as it makes a sharp turn to track southward across the central Gulf of Mexico through early Nov. 11 before gradually turning to track southwestward towards Veracruz State, Mexico, through Nov. 13.

As of late Nov. 9, authorities have rescinded all watches and warnings in relation to the storm. Rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture from Rafael is forecast to lead to 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) of rain, with local amounts of up to 25 cm (10 inches), across portions of the Southwest US and central Louisiana through early Nov. 10. This rain will lead to potentially significant flash flooding. Authorities will likely update and extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming days as the storm approaches.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.