India: Additional increased security measures, related disruptions likely in Sambhal, Uttar Pradesh State, through at least early December /update 1

Further, recurring tightened security measures, rallies, and related disruptions to local transportation and business services are likely in Sambhal, Uttar Pradesh, through at least early December. On Nov. 24, clashes erupted between activists and police after authorities attempted to carry out a site survey of the Shahi Jama Mosque (Masjid), which some locals assert is the site of an older Hindu temple. Protesters denouncing the survey reportedly threw rocks at the survey team, prompting authorities to respond with tear gas and baton charges to disperse the crowd. The incident left at least five people dead and several others injured.

As of early Nov. 28, officials are maintaining an increased security presence in Sambhal, especially near the Shahi Jama Masjid area. Internet services are reportedly suspended through Nov. 29. Depending on the severity of the perceived threat, the government could extend the existing measure or impose expanded restrictions, such as public movement restrictions. Authorities have detained 27 individuals in connection with the violence; further mass arrests are possible.

Although there have been no announcements for gatherings, related demonstrations and counterrallies are likely over the coming days. Local officials will submit the survey report to the court Nov. 29, which could trigger additional civil unrest depending on perceived grievances. Protests involving opposing groups of Hindu and Muslim activists carry an elevated threat of violence and could spread to other areas. Potential rally venues include the Shahi Jama Mosque, other worship sites, and government buildings such as court premises, public squares, and thoroughfares. Well-attended gatherings could draw thousands of participants.

As a precaution, authorities will almost certainly monitor any gatherings and may use force to disperse them. Depending on operational needs, officials could impose security restrictions. Clashes between police, activists, and members of opposing groups are possible. Isolated security incidents, including arson and vandalism, cannot be ruled out.