25 Nov 2024 | 02:30 PM UTC
Mozambique: Further protests likely nationwide through late November following contested election results /update 11
Further opposition protests, violence likely in Mozambique through late November amid negotiations following contested election results.
Further disruptions and violence are likely across Mozambique through late November as opposition parties continue to dispute the election results. The National Electoral Commission (Comissao Nacional de Eleicoes, CNE) has declared Daniel Chapo and the Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo) victors; the results have yet to be certified by the Constitutional Council. Opposition parties, including Optimistic People for the Development of Mozambique (Podemos), the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM), and Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo), have rejected and appealed the results. Outgoing President Nyusi of Frelimo has invited candidates of MDM, Podemos, Renamo as well as Frelimo to a meeting in Maputo on Nov. 26 to resolve the crisis.
Venancio Mondlane, the presidential candidate of the opposition Podemos, has repeatedly called for nationwide protests. Since late October, demonstrations have included road blockages, clashes, looting, and acts of minor arson. On Nov. 18, authorities announced they were investigating Mondlane to demand compensation for the damages caused by the protests. Armed forces were deployed to quell the violence, reportedly using tear gas, rubber bullets, and live ammunition. Authorities confirmed restricting internet access to prevent the spread of unrest. As of Nov. 25, NGO reports suggest at least 67 protesters may have been killed since the start of the unrest.
Further calls for protests or counterprotests, likely drawing thousands, are likely in the coming weeks. Protest activity will likely occur in large urban areas, such as Maputo, Beira, Quelimane, Nacala, Nampula, and Pemba; other coastal or border cities could be similarly affected. The northern provinces of Cabo Delgado and Niassa are also likely hotspots. In Maputo, movements will likely concentrate near Frelimo and CNE offices near Kenneth Kaunda Avenue and Joaquin Chissano Avenue. Demonstrations could lead to road blockages and acts of arson; shutdowns could lead to business and public services closures. Trade unions may also call for strikes. Additional protests near borders could lead to closures and affect freight and passenger travel. Incidents of looting could target large retail stores, foreign businesses, and mining compounds. Increased security is likely nationwide, especially near protest locations. Security measures may include checkpoints, increased patrolling in urban centers, border restrictions, internet and telecommunication blackouts, and curfews. Violence between opposing party members or involving security services is likely and will pose an incidental danger to bystanders. Peripheral incidents of criminal violence, not necessarily connected with the election, are possible.
Some foreign diplomatic missions have warned of potential rallies and disruptions and advised their citizens to minimize unnecessary movements during such events.
Exercise caution while operating in Mozambique through late November. Avoid all gatherings, political events, election-related activities, and concentrations of security forces. Avoid displaying overtly yellow clothes as they may be associated with the political opposition. Exercise caution near police offices, border posts, and government buildings. If clashes break out, leave the area immediately and take shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Reconfirm appointments and plan for increased employee absenteeism during strike actions. Plan accordingly for disruptions to freight and passenger travel across borders, as well as for telecommunications and commercial operations. Consider alternative modes of communication for critical business operations. Monitor local news for information on possible curfews, communication outages, and road conditions. Heed the advice of local authorities. Do not attempt to pass through police checkpoints without authorities' permission. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.
On Oct. 9, Mozambican citizens voted to elect a new president, parliament, and regional governmental officials. Election periods can be disruptive in Mozambique. Opposition parties called the process fraudulent before the election results were announced, and Mondlane claimed an early victory. On Oct. 24, the CNE confirmed Chapo, Frelimo's new leader, as president with 70 percent of the vote; Frelimo secured 195 of 250 parliamentary seats and won all provincial governorships. Over half of registered voters abstained.
Nationwide protests followed each announcement, mostly led by Podemos and Mondlane. On Oct. 21, a first strike followed the alleged political killing of two high-ranking Podemos members. On Oct. 24-25, a two-day nationwide shutdown was called in anticipation of the release of election results. They then called for nationwide protests near the CNE and Frelimo offices Oct. 31-Nov. 7. New protests occurred Nov. 13-16, as Mondlane had asked protesters to specifically target economically significant locations, including Maputo, provincial capitals, ports, and borders. On Nov. 20-22, protests were more peaceful, with road blockages and travel disruptions reported across Maputo. On Nov. 23, Frelimo supporters held a counter-protest in Maputo in support of Daniel Chapo's electoral victory. South African authorities have intermittently closed the Lebombo border post due to protest activity in the nearby town of Ressano Garcia.
Other disruptive events included: on Oct. 27, an attack on a police office, also in Chalaua, during which at least one officer died; on Oct. 28, the invasion and destruction of a mining compound near Chalaua, Nampula Province; Nov. 5-9 skirmishes, road blockages, and looting in Ressano Garcia near the Lebombo border with South Africa leading to its closure. Two South African journalists were reportedly detained before being released on Nov. 15.
