12 Nov 2024 | 10:01 AM UTC
N. Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm Man-yi tracking westward, east of Guam, as of the evening of Nov. 12 /update 3
TS Man-yi tracking westward in North Pacific Ocean Nov. 12. Close approach to Guam early Nov. 13.
Tropical Storm Man-yi is tracking westward in the North Pacific Ocean the evening of Nov. 12. As of 16:00 ChST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 150 km (90 miles) east of Guam.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will generally track westward as it strengthens further through Nov. 12 and closely approaches Guam early Nov. 13, passing north of the island. The system is then forecast to strengthen as it tracks westward away from Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands through Nov. 14 before strengthening further to a typhoon as it turns to track northwestward towards the northern Philippines Nov. 15-17. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.
Tropical storm warnings are in place for the coastal waters of Guam, Rota, Saipan, and Tinian through Nov. 13. Very strong winds are forecast, causing hazardous seas. Hazardous surf conditions are likely, especially across the windward-facing shores. Guam officials moved the territory to Condition of Readiness 2 (COR 2) at 17:00 local time. Under COR 2, schools and nonessential government offices will close. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
